During the Create Your Own Life show on Tuesday, People’s Pundit Editor and Big Data Polling Director Richard Baris sat down to talk about how Trump needs to win just three states to gain a second term as leader of the country.
Show host Jeremy Ryan Slate began, referencing an April episode of Timcast with guest Charlie Kirk, "he said, you know, that’s why they’re indicting Trump. The map has changed and what he means is that Trump would jsut need to win Arizona, Wisconsin, and Georgia and the Republicans could even lose Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and still win, I think with 217."
"So how has the country changed and how does that affect the election," he asked.
Baris began by stating that Trump would also win Maine’s second congressional district, made up of northern Maine, and that another candidate like DeSantis "would lose."
Baris said that the 10-year census recently came out, which occurs between every two to three election cycles, "which changes or reallocates based on population the Electoral College, how many Electoral College votes each state gets because the Democratic areas of the country are experiencing an exodus when it comes to state by state or state to state migration."
He used the example of California, which has experienced working-class residents "abandoning the state of California, going to Florida, going to Texas, even Arizona, Nevada."
"Once upon a time in 2016, it was extremely difficult when Trump won that election, it was extremely difficult for Republicans to win," he said, adding that Democrats in that election started off with 240. "That is not the case anymore."
"A Republican candidate doesn’t need to run the table anymore."
Baris later added that while the 2024 map looks promising for Republicans, "they still have a rust belt problem." He said that in Michigan, counties where Trump "wins big majorities" have seen Republicans lose to Democrats.
"Nevertheless, it still changes it because maybe they can pluck off Wisconsin. If they can’t get Michigan, they can’t get Pennsylvania, and I do think both those states are still in play if Trump is the nominee, but Wisconsin" has a larger share of evangelicals and is more rural than Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Trump’s win to get the presidency "would require Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin."
Baris continued on to talk about Kirk’s appearance on Timcast, stating, "Charlie said this is going to come down to basically seven counties in three states. He’s absolutely right."
If Trump doesn’t win the nomination, Baris said, the Republican nominee wouldn’t win.
During Kirk’s appearance on Timcast, he said, "this is why the Democrats are indicting Trump, the map has changed."
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