New polls released by the Trafalgar Group show the presidential race between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden to be tightening in key battleground state.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #WIpoll conducted Oct 14-16 shows a shrinking Biden lead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 19, 2020
47.6% @JoeBiden,
46.3% @realDonaldTrump,
2.2% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.1% Other,
2.8% Und. See Report: https://t.co/ihbIlWchF5 pic.twitter.com/BbF6FHRuv4
The polls show Trump to hold a narrow 0.6 percent lead over Biden in Michigan, with the Republican Senate candidate in the state, John James, holding a somewhat larger lead of 1.4 percent over incumbent Democratic Senator Gary Peters. Meanwhile, Biden holds a 1.3 percent lead over the president in Wisconsin. All results are within the polls' margin of error.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-14 still shows a thin Trump lead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020
46.5% @realDonaldTrump,
45.9% @JoeBiden,
2.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
2.2% all others,
2.2% Und. See Report: https://t.co/dcPtMMUSpx pic.twitter.com/l1whvPtn1f
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #USSen #MIpoll conducted Oct 11-15 shows James’ expanding lead:
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 17, 2020
48.0% @JohnJamesMI,
46.6% @GaryPeters,
2.8% Other,
2.5% Und. See Report: https://t.co/jrWKEkkkTA pic.twitter.com/N9YK47xvvk
Biden also maintains a small lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, with the president polling at 46.4 percent to Biden's 47.5 percent. The results are once again within the margin of error.
Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster for the Trafalgar Group, made an appearance with Sean Hannity on Fox News last night where he claimed to believe that Donald Trump, based on his polling expertise, will likely win the upcoming November election. The Trafalgar Group accurately predicted Trump's victory in many rust belt states in 2016, which many analysts dubbed the "blue wall."
Joined @FoxNews @seanhannity tonight to give a glimpse into why our @trafalgar_group polls are showing a tightening race. You can watch the full segment here: https://t.co/sKJEGJZ2g0 pic.twitter.com/gMxFKQ9tE3
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 21, 2020
Other polls from the Trafalgar Group show Trump leading Biden by 1.7% in North Carolina, 2.3 percent in Florida, 3.7 percent in Ohio, and 4 percent in Arizona. The closest race according to the Trafalgar Group is in Minnesota, where Biden leads Trump by a mere 0.4 percent. Minnesota has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Richard Nixon's electoral landslide in 1972, and was the only state to vote Democratic in Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide victory.
The Trafalgar Group employs a somewhat different methodology from other pollsters to account for what Cahaly dubs as the "hidden Trump vote." "These people are more hesitant to participate in polls," Cahaly told Hannity, "so if you’re not compensating for this, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
Other pollsters have followed suit in attempting to identify hidden Trump voters. A new poll conducted by the University of Northern Florida shows Biden with a slight 1 percent lead over Trump in Florida, the largest of the swing states. According to the pollsters, they adjusted their methodology by recording the answers of people who stated their voting intentions and hanging up the phone before being given a chance to answer questions, which dwindled Biden's lead.
Biden still maintains a healthy lead over Trump in the national popular vote, which Trump also lost in 2016. Unfortunately for the Democratic nominee, however, the popular vote is irrelevant in deciding the next president.
According to polling averages aggregated by RealClearPolitics, Biden's lead in key battleground states has dwindled in the past few months, dropping from a lead of over 6 percent to a mere 4 percent.
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