Former President Donald Trump is surging ahead in Iowa per a recent Emerson College poll, garnering 62 percent support, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis lagging behind at 20 percent.
"Trump’s lead in the caucus reflects his numbers in Emerson’s March New Hampshire primary poll, where he held a 41-point lead over DeSantis," said Spencer Kimball, the Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.
In a hypothetical head-to-head between Trump and Biden, Trump leads with 49 percent to 38 percent among Iowa voters. DeSantis beats Biden in the matchup, 45 percent to 38 percent.
"The former president’s base continues to be voters under 35: 75 percent of whom support Trump, and voters without a college degree: 70 percent support Trump," Kimball added. "DeSantis’s support is higher among voters with a postgraduate degree, with 29 percent support, still trailing Trump’s 37 percent with this group."
In the same poll, both former Vice President Mike Pence and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley received 5 percent support. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) received 3 percent support, while Vivek Ramaswamy garnered 2 percent. Chris Sununu and Asa Hutchinson both came in with 1 percent.
In the lead-up to the primary elections, which determine which candidate from which political party will face off in the general election for president, Iowa continues to be a significant determining factor for who becomes the frontrunner for their respective party. It is notably is the first state in the union to cast its vote. Unlike many other states, which hold votes to determine their selection, Iowa holds caucuses, where citizens come together, meet, discuss the candidates, and then vote for their selection.
The same poll found Joe Biden with a 54 percent job disapproval rating while only 35 percent approved. Within Democratic caucus voters in Iowa, Biden holds a 76 percent approval rating.
"Heading into the 2024 primary season, President Biden is in a comfortable position. Compared to his performance in the state in 2020 where he received about 16 percent of the final vote, less than a third of Democratic caucus voters are looking to another candidate in 2024," Kimball explained. "Biden’s support is stronger among voters with a college degree than those without: 78 percent to 59 percent."
In the Iowa caucus, Democrat voters plan to vote for Biden with 69 percent support. Robert Francis Kennedy Jr received 11 percent support and Marianne Williamson 10 percent.
The poll was conducted May 19-22, 2032 with a sample of 1,064 registered voters and has a margin of error of 2.9 percent.
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