Liberals and Conservatives in dead heat despite damning ethics report

According to a new Ipsos poll, the Liberals have gained two percentage points and the Conservatives have lost the same amount since July 15th.
Siddak Ahuja Montreal, QC

It seems as though the ethics report published recently, implicating Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of violating the ethics code, hasn’t had the impact the opposition had hoped for.

According to a new Ipsos poll, the Liberals have gained two percentage points and the Conservatives have lost the same amount since July 15th.

The online poll was conducted on behalf of Global News between August 16 and 19, around when the ethics commissioner’s report on SNC-Lavalin was released. It is accurate to within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The poll shows Conservatives are still in the lead with 35% of the votes, but the Liberals have risen up to 33%. The NDP is still at 18% as the Greens gained two percentage points to land at 9%. The Bloc is at 3% (down two percentage points) but 14% in Quebec, the PPC at 1%, and 1% for other parties and candidates.

“I think the eight weeks of coverage we had in the spring of the SNC-Lavalin affair really solidified things for people and I think what we saw last week was a confirmation of public views, so we saw very little change,” said Mike Colledge, president of Ipsos Public Affairs.

“I don’t think what we saw last week shifted anything. It confirmed what people saw in the spring and basically hardened their positions, if anything.”

When comparing demographics, women are statistically tied with 33% voting for Liberals and the same number voting Conservative. NDP is in third place at 21%.

38% of men may vote Conservative, and 33% may vote Liberal. NDP is far behind at 14%.

In the 18-34 age group, Liberals lead at 35% over the Conservatives’ 27%. The NDP, again, lags at 20%.

Those aged 55 and up, side mostly with the Conservatives (43%). Liberals are at 33% and NDP 12%.

However, the picture isn’t as rosy for the Liberals as one may expect. Only 36% of Canadians approve of Justin Trudeau’s performance as a Prime Minister, down from 39% in July. His disapproval went up three points to 64%.

67% of Canadians still believe it is time for a change as only 33% still want to keep Trudeau as Prime Minister for the next four years.

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Siddak Ahuja
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