GOP favored to gain up to 35 seats in the US House: report

According to the Cook Political Report fall House forecast, Republicans will likely have a net gain 20 to 35 seats, with 10 races having shifted in Republicans' favor while only two shifted towards Democrats. The report labeled 35 Democrat held seats "tossup" or worse.

Historically the sitting president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. 23 House Democrats have already announced that they will not seek re-election, compared with only 11 Republicans.

Biden's approval rating has been consistently tracking low— in the high to mid-30s— and it continues to drop with no floor in sight. As inflation and gas prices soar, Biden’s approval continues to plummet, with some polls showing that 75 percent or more of Americans believing that the country is on the wrong path.

Recent polling consistently shows that Republicans are winning on generic congressional ballots.

Cook's US House editor Dave Wasserman told Axios that the situation is especially perilous for House Democrats facing tight races in "orphan states," where there's no competitive statewide election driving turnout which include; California, Indiana, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, Washington — and even possibly New York.

According to the outlet, the only possible way for those Democrats to attempt to survive the midterms would be to go "scorched earth" against still-undefined Republican challengers, which, includes all first-time candidates.

Democrats have already attempted to use the leaked Supreme Court draft opinion which could overturn Roe v. Wade as an opportunity to increase enthusiasm for their candidates, especially those running for governor in states with Republican-controlled legislatures.

Additionally, Democrats are likely to use the gun control debate in the wake of the Uvalde, Texas school massacre to their advantage.