New variants of coronavirus are likely to make up 40 percent of all coronavirus cases in Ontario by the second week of March.
The model, while more optimistic than previous ones, suggests that coronavirus will be spreading more quickly across the province in March due to the more infectious nature of the variants. The increase in cases will also lead to an increase in hospitalizations, CP24 reports.
The model predicts that, in the most likely scenario, Ontario could experience as many as 2,500 new cases of coronavirus per day as a result of the variants by the end of March. However, that number could range from as little as 500 daily cases in the best case scenario to 4,000 in the worst case.
The province reported 1,100 new cases on Wednesday.
Ontario science table co-chair Dr. Adalsteinn Brown compared the new variant to a "minefield."
"Case numbers are down and the extended stay at home order in the GTA has been a powerful protection against more rapid growth but the worst dangers are immediately in front of us," Brown said. "Case rates are already rising in some of the public health units again and the new variants of the virus are another serious hazard ahead of us. In the United Kingdom cases tripled in a month before a much more serious lockdown brought them back under control. A big jump in mobility or a big increase in gatherings will create the same kind of dangers for us."
It has been noted that the spread of the new coronavirus variants mirrors patterns seen in the United Kingdom.
"The next few weeks are critical to understanding the impact of the variants. There is a period of remaining risk before the pandemic likely recedes in the summer," the model suggests.
The model also showed that cases of coronavirus in long-term care facilities have dropped dramatically in recent weeks, largely as a result of vaccination efforts.
However, confusion and mismanagement of vaccine acquisition and rollout clouds predictions on when most Canadians will have access to the vaccine. The Canadian government is only expected to acquire 1.3 million vaccine doses in March, enough to vaccinate less than four percent of Canadians. Additionally, vaccine recipients are required to get two doses in order for it to fully protect them from coronavirus.
The Trudeau government has been heavily criticized in the media for the slow rollout of the vaccine. As of last week, Canada stood behind 39 countries in vaccination rate, and has been consistently dropping since the vaccine was first rolled out.
Less than five percent of Canadians are vaccinated against coronavirus as of Thursday, about one quarter of the rate seen in the United States.
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