Biden-Harris’ 2024 job estimates could be lowered by 1 million as Kamala brags about growth: report

Economists with the Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Wells Fargo & Co are predicting that the government’s preliminary benchmark revisions set to be released on Wednesday will show that payroll growth through March is at least 600,000 weaker than estimated, Bloomberg reports.

JPMorgan Chase & Co forecasters are predicting a decline of 360,000, while Goldman Sachs is saying it could be as large as 1 million.

The outlet noted that there are a number of "caveats" in the preliminary estimates, "but a downward revision to employment of more than 501,000 would be the largest in 15 years and suggest the labor market has been cooling for longer — and perhaps more so — than originally thought."

Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Aubrey Woessner said in a note, "A large negative revision would indicate that the strength of hiring was already fading before this past April." This would make "risks to the full employment side of the Fed’s dual mandate more salient amid widespread softening in other labor market data."

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) updates its March payrolls level once per year with the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which is based on state unemployment insurance tax records. Harris posted on Facebook in February, touting jobs numbers and said, "We have more work to do, but it's clear: America's economy is strong and getting stronger."

BLS data currently states that 2.9 million jobs were added in the year ending in March 2024, averaging 242,000 per month. If the revised numbers are 1 million lower than previously estimated, monthly gains would average out to 158,000, "still a healthy pace of hiring but a moderation from the post-pandemic peak."

July's jobs report, released in August, saw unemployment increase to 4.3 percent with 114,000 jobs added. This was under the predicted 185,000 estimated by Dow Jones. Following the release of the report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 832 points. In June, one-third of jobs were added in the government sector.