COVID cases rise across Canada, but deaths nowhere near levels of first wave

Dr. Matthew Oughton, an infectious disease specialist at Jewish General Hospital in Montreal, told The Canadian Press that a contributing factor to deaths being down is due to the fact that younger and healthier people are mostly getting the virus, compared to the older folks and long-term care residents who were getting it in the spring.

At the end of April, 45 percent of Ontario’s cases were in people over 60, while less than 25 percent were in people under 40. On September 20th, 11 percent of cases were in people over 60, while 62 percent were in people under 40. 80 percent of COVID deaths so far have come from long term care homes.

When you add the expanded knowledge that the medical community has obtained on COVID-19, it means that more people have the ability to not go to hospital and fewer people are dying.

National data shows that 60 percent of Canada’s total cases and 91 percent of Canada’s total deaths were recorded in April, May, and June. 34 percent of the total cases and eight percent of Canada’s total deaths were recorded in the three months after June.

However, doctors and politicians are saying that the low death rate may be no more if numbers keep soaring the way they have been in the last few weeks.

Dr. Oughton adds that low risk doesn't mean no risk, as cases soar in younger Canadians, the number of them who will die as a result of being infected will also start to rise.

He also says that an increase in community transmission poses another risk as it increases the chance of COVID-19 entering retirement and long term care homes. The impact of a second wave in those establishments would be devastating.

"What's going to happen almost inevitably, as you have more and more spread in the community, it's going to find more vulnerable groups to spread to," added Dr. Oughton.

On Friday, Liberal Health Minister Patty Hajdu, who has been criticized for her mishandling of the pandemic, said that the knowledge about treatments and public health protections that has been learned in the first wave has better equipped the country for the second wave.

She added that none of that will help if hospitals reach full capacity. "At the end of the day, we still can't see these rises in cases increase exponentially," said Hajdu.

Cases in Canada are on the rise, going from an average in the low 400s at the end of august, to more than 1,700 last Friday. Ontario and Quebec are making up for over 80 percent of new cases.

Minister Hajdu added that Canadians could see full lockdowns re-established if they don't get this second wave under control. Adding "This is a fine-tuned balance between making sure we can have some semblance of a normal economy and a normal life and also protect our health care."