Experts anticipate rise in cases of COVID-19 variants in Canada

Experts say that we may not be clear yet entirely of wave two, as wave three looms on the horizon. What constitutes a "wave" in terms of viral spread, is not exactly a clear cut matter.

Waves of a virus tend to subside as a population increases its immunity to the virus, which has not yet occurred on a wide scale, Caroline Colijn, a COVID modeler at Simon Fraser University, says.

"This isn’t a wave, it’s a forest fire," Colijn said. "We turn the hoses off and the flames build up again and we get exponential growth. Then we turn the hoses back on and cases decrease."

Colijn says she predicts a steep increase in cases in six of Canada’s biggest provinces towards the end of February.

"We’re not seeing a natural tailing off. We’re seeing things drop because of restrictions — those fire hoses we put in front of the fire," she said.

"Then we turn the hoses off and we’re surprised that this wave is coming back," she continued.

Top Canadian doctors said Friday that as many as eight provinces have reported cases of new variants of COVID-19, three provinces showing evidence of community transmission.

There has been 429 reported cases of the variant found in the U.K., 28 cases of the variant found in South Africa and one of the variant found in Brazil, Chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said. While the numbers aren't staggeringly high, the high transmissibility of the variants is raising cause for concern.

"You have that initial fire and then sparks start flying … and that leads to a bunch of small fires," University of Manitoba virologist Jason Kindrachuk said.

"If those start to catch, you lose the ability to necessarily keep things in control," he continued.