Had China intervened three weeks earlier, coronavirus spread would have been reduced ‘by 95 percent’: Study

Researchers at the university ran complex modelling using data of both human movement and illness onset, sponsored by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, "to help simulate different outbreak scenarious for cities in mainland China."

The study concluded with findings that were shocking, but not unexpected: That by the end of February 2020, there was a total of 114,325 cases of the COVID-19 virus.

According to the study, without the non-pharmaceutical interventions put on the public like social distancing, travel restrictions, and detection methods, the number of cases in mainland China would have been a whopping 67 times larger than the official figures given by the Chinese government.

Early intervention also would have significantly stomped out the spread of the virus, researchers found.

Early intervention at one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier could have snuffed out cases by "66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively." In turn, the virus' worldwide severity would have been drastically cut.

Southampton's Dr. Shengjie Lai said: “Our study demonstrates how important it is for countries which are facing an imminent outbreak to proactively plan a coordinated response which swiftly tackles the spread of the disease on a number of fronts."

"We also show that China’s comprehensive response, in a relatively short period, greatly reduced the potential health impact of the outbreak,” Lai continued.