Modelling says coming Ford lockdown could bring Ontario back to under 1,000 new cases per day

The model predicts a high of 1,500 cases per day after four weeks of lockdown and a number closer to 2,000 if the province only locks down for two weeks. According to the model, the province could experience as many as 6,000 new cases of the virus per day if no lockdown measures are implemented.

The data comes a day after Premier Doug Ford was reported to be preparing to announce another month of lockdown measures as daily cases once again climb across the province. While cases across the province began to drop at the beginning of January, they have since risen again to around 2,300 per day as of Wednesday.

The spike in coronavirus cases coincides with a large increase in hospitalizations, including in intensive care units. According to the government, ICU is at its highest capacity ever since the start of the pandemic, apparently due to the increasing prevalence of coronavirus variants among confirmed cases.

The impending shutdown reportedly will include the complete shutdown of gyms and salons, while restaurants will once again be forced to allow take-out only. Unlike during previous lockdowns, non-essential retail stores will be allowed to continue operating at a limited capacity.

Lockdown measures implemented by the Ford government has received a great deal of opposition in the province, including among key demographics which put Ford in office in 2018. Critics of lockdowns have questioned their efficacy at combatting coronavirus and have noted to the widespread destruction of small businesses which have taken place across the province over the course of the pandemic.