New York’s population loss could mean the removal of AOC’s seat in the House

Preliminary numbers show that the state’s population of 19,336,776 fell by 126,355 from July 2019 to July 2020. That is a drop of 0.65 percent and the most of any state in the country by total and percentage.

As the population declines, New York could lose as many as two seats in the US House of representatives. Based on these numbers, it is all but guaranteed to lose one seat, dropping from 27 to 26 seats and impacting the state’s influence in Washington DC. According to the Intercept, New York Democrat legislators are looking to eliminate the district of Ocasio-Cortez who they say has been a "disruptive influence."

According to the Brookings Institute, the loss of the seat would give New York fewer representatives than the state of Florida, which is expected to gain two seats to have a total 29.

Florida surpassed New York in 2014 as the third largest state in the nation. The gap between the two has been widening since then, as many New Yorkers migrate south. 21 percent of New Yorkers went to Florida, the most of any other state

The data showed that Florida gained 241,256 people since July 2019, bringing its population to 21.7 million. Only Texas gained more people than Florida, 373,965 residents, over the past year to remain the second most populous state in the country behind California.

The national population during the same period was up another 1,154,170, or 0.35 percent. Overall, the nation has gained nearly 21 million people since 2010, up 6.7 percent.

The Empire Center cited a sharp fall in immigration into New York since 2017 as one of the main contributing factors, in line with a national trend. The Center adds that "…previous annual census estimates have indicated that New York’s sagging population total is due mainly to an outmigration flow of 1.4 million people to other states since 2010."

Only five other states—West Virginia, Illinois, Vermont, Connecticut and Mississippi—have experienced population decreases from 2010 to 2020.

New York also has been losing population faster than the rest of the Northeast Region as a whole, which was down 0.27 percent in the latest year but up almost 1 percent since 2010.

The Center also believes that New York could also be on the way to its first population decline in any decade since the 1970s.

Nationally, only Illinois came close to New York in percentage of population decline, down 79,487 people, or 0.63 percent, since last year.

An Election Data Services analysis of the Census Bureau report showed, "...the population projections point toward a ten [congressional] seat change over 17 states across the nation by year 2020."

According to The Hill, "...the red-state leader is Texas, with a projected pickup of three congressional seats following the 2020 census — and that after gaining four congressional seats after the 2010 election. Florida will pick up two seats, and Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one, according to the analysis. All 10 losing states — Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia — lose only one seat."

The Hill added that "…many California families have decided to migrate to Texas simply to find more affordable housing, lower taxes and streets that aren’t rife with homeless people, feces and used drug paraphernalia."

This means that it is likely that Texas will gain two or three congressional seats, while California will likely lose one.

Rex Real Estate, told the Wall Street Journal in June, "…buyer interest in small metro areas is outpacing large metro areas by 52%. It has also seen a 173% increase in New York buyers considering homes in Orlando compared to this time in 2019." Additionally, New York City’s apartment vacancy rate hit a 14-year high.

New York Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo even begged wealthy residents to return to New York City from their second-home retreats so they can pay taxes to help offset the state’s growing coronavirus-related revenue shortfall.

"I literally talk to people all day long who are now in their Hamptons house who also lived here, or in their Hudson Valley house, or in their Connecticut weekend house, and I say, 'You got to come back! We’ll go to dinner! I’ll buy you a drink! Come over, I’ll cook!'"

Cuomo has tried to downplay the population exodus as the state faces criticism for high taxes driving people to less expensive states, as well as a drop in the quality of life and the rule of law. The reasons New Yorkers gave for leaving, echoed trends seen in those migrating away from Democrat governed states.

According to The New York Post "…the dire picture is only compounded as the unemployment rate in the five boroughs hovers at over cannot meet monthly rent obligations and thousands could face notices from landlords within the next couple months."