Study: Ontario will face ICU bed, ventilator shortages in 37 days even if coronavirus rates cut in half

The study was conducted by a team of researchers from the University of Toronto, Sunnybrook Hospital and the University Health Network along with other institutions. It warns that “significant strain” will be put on critical health-care resources in the coming weeks and is calling on the province to “rapidly identify and create opportunities for additional capacity to care for critically ill patients.”

There have been 258 confirmed cases in Canada as of Thursday. Five of those are now resolved while two deaths can be linked to the virus.

The number of new daily cases in Ontario has risen by an average of 26 percent during the past eight days. That rate has slowed since Monday—dropping to a daily average of 15.6 percent during the past four days.

The report, published on Wednesday says, “Our simulation using a 'conservative scenario' of a daily 7.5 per cent increase of cases predicts that Ontario's ICU bed and ventilator resources will be depleted in approximately 37 days.”

“Ward beds will be full and unable to accommodate new patients in approximately seven weeks.”

Scientist and lead study author at the University Health Network, Beate Sander noted that the surprising conclusion should not cause panic. Sander says it is meant to help medical and political leaders make proper decisions.

The models used in the study do not account for the recent school or border closures that have been put into effect. Sanders noted that she hopes these measures will slow the spread of the virus and take pressure off of Ontario's health-care system.

“I think if we are really diligent with all the public-health measures, I think we can do better… What we call the 'conservative scenario' might be the likely scenario—but I'm hoping for something even less severe,” said Sanders.

The daily growth rate in Canada has dropped below 7.5 percent just once since March 10—on Tuesday.

Sanders said to expect to have to stay in your home for another four weeks minimum.

“All my epidemiologist colleagues will tell you we probably need to have it in place for much longer ... For sure, more than four weeks and probably more than two months,” she said.

“We don't know exactly what's going to happen but we do know that the pressures on our health-care system are going to increase,” said Health Minister Christine Elliott while referring to the study in a news conference Thursday.

“We’re also looking at other alternative measures where we can perhaps place some people who are at an alternate level of care that are currently in our hospitals to a setting that is going to be safe for them and appropriate for them,” Elliott added.

When asked they can bring the daily growth rate of cases in Ontario below 7.5 percent in Ontario, Dr. David Williams, the Chief Medical Officer of Health said, “I'd like to think we can.”