Trump leads Biden 48 to 45 in Nevada—state has not gone red in 20 years: AARP poll

The survey, published by AARP on Tuesday, showed Trump leading Biden by three points, with 48 percent of respondents favoring Trump compared to 45 percent for Biden in Nevada. When third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is factored in, Trump's lead expands to seven points. However, Kennedy has not yet qualified to appear on the Nevada ballot in November, and state Democrats are working to challenge his eligibility.

The poll highlighted significant demographic trends, particularly among voters over the age of 50, where Trump commands a substantial lead over Biden, 53 to 41 percent. Conversely, Biden leads Trump 51 to 41 points among Hispanic voters in the same age group. 1,368 likely Nevada voters (includes 600 statewide, 800 ages 50+ and 400 Hispanic ages 50+) were surveyed between June 12-18, 2024, with a sampling error of +/- 3.5-4.9 points.

The last time Nevada voted for a Republican candidate was in 2004 for George W. Bush. However, it has now become a battleground state in this election, despite its two-decade history of voting Democratic in presidential elections. One notable factor in this shift is Trump's improved popularity among Hispanic voters in recent years.

"We have a huge Hispanic population, so that vote will matter," explained AARP Nevada state director Maria Moore.

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Trump currently holds a four-point lead over Biden in Nevada. Every poll of battleground states included in the Real Clear Politics average has Trump either leading or tied with Biden.

Nevada's electoral votes could be crucial for Trump, as it could be enough to win him a second term should he win other key states, where he is currently leading in the polls.