Summit with UAE and Turkey may shift the sands of diplomacy in the Near East

Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed is slated to arrive in the Turkish capital of Ankara for his first face-to-face meeting in nearly a decade with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. This is a potential signal that the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and Turkey intend to plot a new course in the previously chilly bilateral relationship, in what veteran journalist and European Council on Foreign Relations fellow Asli Aydintasbas labeled the "ultimate de-escalation."

The ideological fault lines that initiated the diplomatic rift during the Arab Spring have not been fully repaired. Included among the many grievances between the two nations over the years are Ankara accusing Abu Dhabi of supporting Fetullah Gulen, the exiled Turkish religious leader widely believed even among Erdogan's fiercest critics to have instigated a bloody failed coup in 2016, while the Emiratis chafed at Turkey inserting itself in the intra-Gulf Cooperation Council feud that is finally winding down on the side of rival Qatar. They also backed opposing sides in Libya's civil war.

By meeting, both men acknowledge that the frosty relationship no longer works to either's benefit, particularly as Biden's foreign policy team hastens the American retreat from the region at large and still refuses to restrain Iran as they attempt to cut a new nuclear deal.

Additionally, Turkey continues to face acute economic challenges. This is most visible in the jump in inflation and the cratering of the lira against the dollar. At this moment, it has lost nearly 45 percent of its value since the start of the year.

Nail Olpak, Chairman of Turkey's Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK), expressed confidence that the summit between the two leaders will yield substantive dividends: "Although the Turkey-UAE bilateral trade has shrunken in the previous years, MBZ's visit, we believe, will have an impact on economic relations as well. The Emirati officials have informed us that they are interested in various Turkish sectors to invest more than $10 billion. Among those sectors are the defense, healthcare, finance, and technology industries. After ten years, UAE Crown's visit to Turkey demonstrates an increasing interest of foreign investors in the Turkish economy."

Olpak and Minister of Trade Mehmet Mus, led a business delegation to Dubai on Monday.

For the Emirates, its recent increase in trade with Iran is more than offset by mounting worry over Tehran's renewed aggressive behavior in the Persian Gulf, and therefore seeks to supplement defense arrangements already being implemented with Israel. Meanwhile, Turkey, while also a trading partner of Iran, is the regime's nemesis in Syria, Iraq, and Azerbaijan, providing a sufficiently effective military counterweight.

After all, Gulf states may choose between the most powerful Muslim-majority states in the region, Iran and Turkey — and in Qatar's case, one may argue it selected both — but over the long term it's dangerous to pick neither one.

Yusuf Erim, editor-at-large for TRT World in Istanbul, explained why the Crown Prince's decision represents the more prudent path: "As the future outlook for the Middle East-North Africa region entails less US engagement, local actors are facing the reality that new arrangements must be made to protect against their national security concerns. With Iran and Turkey both having militaries that can change realities on the ground and being the two most influential countries in region, MENA states are in a situation where they must pick and choose between the two. Most view Turkey as a country that is more pragmatic, easier to reconcile with, and having the capability to reign in aggressive Iranian behavior in future scenarios."

Israel, which has experienced its own diplomatic woes with Turkey over the past 13 years, should be pleased as well. The relatively speedy release of an Israeli couple detained in Istanbul for illegally photographing the presidential compound, and subsequent phone call last week between Erdogan and Israeli President Isaac Herzog and Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, hint that another attempt to repair the once-close ties is underway. A warming of relations between Turkey and the UAE may only quicken reconciliation efforts and yield even greater benefits.

"A successful rapprochement between Turkey and the UAE would have the potential to wind down some of the destabilizing proxy clashes between the two and remove Israel from the awkward position of having to take sides in their regional competition," noted Kyle Orton, an independent Near East analyst based in Great Britain. "Additionally, without Turkish hostility toward the Abraham Accords, particularly from the media, it does leave more space for states, perhaps even Saudi Arabia, to join them, with obvious benefits for Israel."

Gabriel Mitchell, director of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies added that, if necessary, "Israel knows that it also has a backchannel to engage in discussions" with Turkey on outstanding issues.

Wednesday's summit in Ankara is unlikely to be front-page news stories in the United States. For those living in the Near East, however, the handshake between the Turkish and Emirati leaders may very well prove a watershed moment — a day when America's venerable allies, largely abandoned by this White House, managed to set aside not-insignificant differences to bolster their collective security against aggression and instability.

Jason Epstein is president of Southfive Strategies, LLC, an international public affairs consultancy. He was a member of the Turkish Embassy's public relations team in Washington, DC from 2002 to 2007.