This is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.
Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations.
538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win."
As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
538’s simulations also found that Trump is more probable as of Friday to win the Electoral College, while Biden is more likely to with the national popular vote. Trump was found to win the Electoral College with less than 350 electoral votes 38 out of 100 times, while Biden won 28 out of 100 times. Biden was found to win the national popular vote 59 out of 100 times while Trump won 41 out of 100 times.
The simulations also found that Trump has a far higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of these states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of these states 48 out of 100 times.
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