Conservatives continue to make gains, Liberals still lead

A new Mainstreet poll places the Liberal Party with less than a two point lead over the Conservatives, a massive drop when compared to the "sunny-ways" highs the PM enjoyed earlier in his career.

The findings are from a conglomeration of ten provincial polls.

The poll surveyed 7941 Canadians between January 12th and the 17th of this year.

The poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.1% and is accurate 19 times out of 20.

“The Liberals maintain their lead and are still the favourites to win the election if these numbers hold until October,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “The Conservative vote remains inefficient thanks to their very large leads in the Prairies.”

Voter Breakdown

Among decided and leaning voters, the Trudeau Liberals led with 37.2% support (-2.1% since the last poll in November), while the Scheer Conservatives came second with 35.1% (+0.5%). The Singh NDP came third with 11.5% support (+0.7%), while the Greens with Elizabeth May came a close fourth with 7.2% (+0.4%).  The People’s Party led by Maxime Bernier saw notable gains coming in fifth with 4.2% (+0.4 %).

The Bloc Quebecois came last with roughly 3.2% (-0.2%) overall, but have 13.5% in Quebec.

“The one major change since November is that the Liberals have surrendered the lead in BC to the Conservatives,” added Maggi. “This is due to an uptick in support for the NDP in that province.”

That uptick is likely due to the notably harsh anti-pipeline stance taken by the party, likely to support the Horgan government and to shore up voters in the key riding of Burnaby-South where Jagmeet Singh will be facing a do-or-die election.

The less notable, but still important change, is the increase in support for the PPC and the Greens, both of which have been steadily growing their fundraising numbers and membership.

Earlier this week, for example, we published an article highlighting the PPC's recent accomplishment of passing $1 million in donations, all in less than four months. The Greens have also announced record-setting donations this year.

While the PPC and Greens have made gains, the biggest winner here is the Conservative party, which is now almost within the margin of error of passing the governing Liberals.

With the Conservative Party also massively out-fundraising the Liberals by over $1 million this year, and current/former Liberal MPs seeking Conservative nominations, it is fairly obvious which party currently maintains momentum, and who stands to gain in the coming election.

Voter spread

With the Conservative party making gains, one caveat is extremely important, the distribution of voters. Even as the Conservative party continues to gain, most of those gains appear to come from Western strongholds, where there are minimal new gains to be made.

This is likely due to the stark difference in how Eastern and Western Canadians view the current government, with Western provinces feeling distinctly disrespected.

Given this intense division, the newfound momentum behind the Scheer government will likely face difficulty in fully unseating the Liberals, at best bringing about a minority government.

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