According to Nanos Research, the federal New Democrat Party is currently polling at 16% while Singh himself is viewed as the preferred choice for Prime Minister by less than 6%.
On top of this rather dismal polling, party finances are at a decade low, according to IPolitics, "the party lost $1.4 million during 2017," finishing the year with $378,000 in cash, and now have negative net assets of $3.1 million.
Perhaps worst of all the party has already lost some of its most important MPs, as many choose to look for brighter pastures rather than face an almost guaranteed defeat.
With the 2019 election fast approaching, and the odds looking quite poor for Jagmeet Singh, it may well be time to ask: who will lead the swaths of former NDP voters in the coming election?
The Greens
If the NDP were to continue its decline under the current leadership of Singh, the Green party could stand as a decisive winner, as roughly 33% of Canadians are currently willing to consider voting for the party.
With recent provincial successes in B.C., Ontario, and Atlantic Canada the Greens most notably have momentum, a key ingredient when it comes to building a campaign.
If the party can adequately move past its problematic history with antisemitic candidates, and take a more aggressive tone when it comes to pipeline development as well as labour issues, it could take a serious portion of the NDP's base.
The Greens will not be running a candidate in the upcoming by-election in Burnaby.
The Liberals
With the Liberal party considering guaranteed basic minimum income, and a national Pharmacare program, there is no secret that the Trudeau government is making some strides in forming a "Progressive" Liberal coalition.
If the NDP were to remain in its current disarray, and other parties were to fail in selling an alternative vision for Canada to enough disenfranchised parties, the Liberals would be the likely clear winners.
Perhaps best of all for the Liberal party, these voters would likely have no problems with the nation's rapidly expanding national deficit.
The Liberal party has selected the owner of a daycare business as its challenger against NDP leader Jagmeet Singh in an upcoming by-election in British Columbia.
The PPC
While the Greens and Liberals are the more obvious first and second choice, the PPC of Maxime Bernier actually offers an interesting proposal to some traditionally NDP voters.
This common ground would be the anti-free trade camp, which has lost greatly as a result of globalization, and now contains a wave of visible anger towards large-government supported corporations who continue to reduce salaries and cut staff.
While this group would not gladly support all of Bernier's policies, they could support just enough as a vote against the current establishment of consecutive Liberal or Conservative governments.
An interesting note here, in the upcoming Burnaby by-election, the PPC have named Laura-Lynn Tyler Thompson, a Christian blogger, author and former co-host of The 700 Club Canada – known for her vehement opposition to the province’s SOGI 123 program, as their candidate.
The NDP under a new leader
If Jagmeet Singh were to lose the upcoming by-election in Barnaby, either an interim leader would be named for the election, or a rapid-fire election would be held to select a new leader.
An article by Charlie Smith interestingly places betting odds for each MP's potential chances of becoming leader in that mess. Regardless of who wins, the party will likely lose.
Becoming the leader of a party in massive debt with less than a few months until the October election will almost assuredly be the kiss of death for any candidate, given Canada's extremely limited campaign financing laws.
Maybe Jagmeet?
There is no understating the long-term consequences in almost all of the above scenarios.
If the NDP is not able to do better, and under its current leadership, it is far more likely than not that Canada will be left with a dominant Liberal government, with near to no genuine electoral challenge for years to come.
While this may sound great to some, it is terrible for our democracy, and for our national unity, as an unchallenged Liberal government would likely shift further away from supporting Western resource markets in order to support Eastern technology markets.
The real best case scenario, for 2019 is that Jagmeet Singh runs a coordinated campaign which can actually maintain if not expand the current standing of the NDP.
With multiple ethics scandals, a rapidly dropping approval rating nationwide, and an impossible tightrope to balance on when it comes the pipeline development, the Trudeau government has certainly provided enough fodder.
At this point, it seems all that matters is the question, does Jagmeet Singh want to be Prime Minister bad enough?
For now well have to wait until the by-election in Burnaby South to see.
Who do you think will do well in 2019? Will Jagmeet Singh remain the leader of the NDP? Will the NDP do well?
Join the conversation by commenting below!
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