Meet Arnon Mishkin– the Fox analyst who called Arizona early

The concern from the Trump campaign was understandable. The Grand Canyon State, which has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once since 1948, was pivotal to Trump's reelection efforts. As well, it wasn't until the next day that the Associated Press became the next network to call the state in Biden's favour. CNN, The New York Times, and other outlets which are traditionally less favourable to the President than Fox are still yet to call the state as Biden's lead continues to narrow.

Yet despite a barrage of calls and complaints, with reports that even Rupert Murdoch himself, the media mogul who owns the network, was contacted by Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, Fox News chose to stand by its decision, and moreover, the decision maker. That man is Arnon Mishkin.

So who is Arnon Mishkin?

Mishkin is a media consultant, Fox News contributor, pollster, and director of the network's decision desk, the team of data analysts and political scientists who make race projections during elections. Early on in his career he worked with David Garth, a well-regarded political consultant from the state of New York who worked on campaigns for both Democrats and Republicans. He has been the mastermind behind Fox News's decision desk since 2008 and is highly regarded in his industry for his data-crunching.

A graduate of the prestigious Yale University, the 65-year-old Brooklyn native married a former NBC editor, with whom he has two daughters. A practicing Jew, his father had left Poland for what was then Mandatory Palestine in 1937, while the family he left behind was exterminated in the Holocaust. His mother survived the Kovno Ghetto in Kanaus, Lithuania, where prisoners were subject to forced labour. He is also an avid cello player, proudly informing anyone who asks of his election night tradition of playing a Bach concerto.

Mishkin has a reputation for calling races early and correctly, often to the ire of the Republicans who watch his network when his projections are not in their favour. With a compelling track record on the matter, he has had no qualms defending his projections publicly.

In 2012, Fox News became the first major network to call Ohio in favour of President Barack Obama. The projection was met with outrage from the Mitt Romney campaign, for which Ohio was considered a key state to attain victory.

That evening, Republican strategist Karl Rove lambasted the network live on air for their decision, which Rove insisted was premature. With only 73% of the vote counted, Obama was leading Romney in the state by less than 31,000 votes. Rove served as a strategist for former President George W. Bush in both 2000 and 2004, playing a key role in capturing Ohio's electoral votes in both election.

Then-Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly sought to investigate Rove's discontent and payed a visit to Mishkin at the decision desk. Mishkin informed Kelly that he was "comfortable" with the projection, arguing that there was "just too much Obama vote outstanding." Mishkin proved to be correct, with Obama's lead in the state rising to over 160,000 votes by the time the results were finalized.

In a 2014 interview with i24News, an Israeli news station, Mishkin predicted Hillary Clinton's eventual victory in the Democratic primaries before she announced her intention to run. He also predicted that she would be challenged by someone to the left of her who would ultimately fail, but not without damaging her standing among the electorate.

Bernie Sanders ended up challenging Clinton for the nomination, with many of his supporters accusing the Democratic National Community of rigging the primaries after his loss.

Mishkin again angered Republicans during the 2018 midterm elections when Fox News became the first network to call a Democratic victory in the House of Representatives, a result which was highly anticipated by most election observers and pollsters.

However, none of these calls drew the ire of Republicans quite like his early call for Arizona on November 3rd, 2020.

The Trump campaign was quick to attack Mishkin and his network for the call, accusing him of being biased against the President. Mishkin is a registered Democrat who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 and has made multiple campaign donations to Democratic politicians and affiliated organization, including Obama's 2008 presidential campaign and ActBlue, which the Trump campaign was happy to point out.

November 5, 2020

Not every donation Mishkin has made has been to Democrats, however. He donated $500 to Bruce Polliquin in 2014, a Republican who served two terms as the Congressman for Maine's 2nd Congressional District. In 1998 he donated $200 to the campaign of Republican John A McMullen in his failed bid for a Senate seat in Vermont.

In an interview with the 's Stephen Battaglio, Mishkin was addressing attacks from the other side of the aisle, with the interviewer questioning how , which is widely regarded as a conservative-leaning network, could be trusted to make calls which are fair and accurate.