Prominent pollster Frank Luntz says RFK Jr.’s support could sway swing state voters to Trump

During a Friday appearance on NewsNation’s “On Balance” with Leland Vittert, Luntz said that though Kennedy’s poll numbers have dropped since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party nominee for president, his supporters could provide enough votes to nudge some swing states in Trump’s favor.

Luntz said, “It’s probably worth about 1 percent for Trump, and that 1 percent could be everything if it’s in the swing states. In the end, the reason why Kennedy was drawing 10, 12, even as high as 14 percent is because he was taking votes away from Joe Biden. Joe Biden’s gone. Kamala Harris has replaced him, and [Kennedy’s] vote collapsed down to about 4 or 5 percent and what’s left is a Trump vote.”

He added, “Some of them are simply not going to participate in November, roughly two to one, the ones who are remaining will vote for Trump over Harris, and that’s worth a single percent, and a single percent can make the difference in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.”

A recent poll from Cook Political Report Swing State Project showed Harris leading or tied with Trump in six of the seven swing states and that she held a 1-point lead over Trump in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Luntz also called out the media by saying that Kennedy would have been portrayed as a “hero” if he had endorsed Harris rather than Trump. “If he had endorsed Harris, I do think he would be regarded as a hero but because he endorsed Trump, the people who are communicating that are not giving him the credit that he deserves, and I think we have to be careful in the last 73 days of this election campaign to understand the motivations of the people providing us information like what I’m doing right now, because I am dedicated to getting this election correct.”

Luntz noted that if Trump campaigned on issues like immigration and inflation, he would have the advantage, but if the race becomes about character traits, Harris would have the advantage. “If it is about attributes, if he continues to attack Harris in the way that he has done, and he gets away from inflation, which is really affordability, stops talking about paycheck-to-paycheck voters, which is better than working class or middle class, the language does matter here, if he does that, he is in the driver’s seat.”

Kennedy began his campaign as a Democrat but in October switched his party affiliation to run as an Independent. He held double-digit support in the polls but lost some of his voters when Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket. On Friday, Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump.