Justin Trudeau may face non-confidence vote as early as next week: report

There could be a fall election in Canada – fall 2024, not 2025 – if Prime Minister Justin Trudeau allows a non-confidence vote to occur in the House of Commons next week. Trudeau is reportedly agreeable to doing just that.

According to a report in the Toronto Star, citing anonymous sources, Trudeau will allow a non-confidence motion to be raised by the Official Opposition Conservatives next week. The motion be brought forth as early as next Tuesday, Sept. 24, with a vote happening the next day.

If the Bloc Québécois and the New Democratic Party vote with the Conservatives, it will provoke a new federal election, over one year earlier than the one currently slated for October 2025.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party suffered two byelection losses Monday night. With the results in, Liberal candidates lost in both contests. In the perpetually safe seat in Montreal of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, the Liberal candidate lost to the Bloc Québécois' Louis-Philippe Sauvé, in a tight three-way race. In the Manitoba riding of Winnipeg's Elmwood —Transcona, the NDP's Leila Dance defeated the Conservative Party with the Liberals a distant third.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre announced on September 11 that he plans to introduce a non-confidence motion “at the earliest opportunity” after the resumption of Parliament Monday. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s loose coalition with the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended last week, with Poilievre calling that a political “stunt” at the time.

Trudeau has already said that the results of the byelections won’t affect this resolve to stay on as Liberal leader and prime minister. “I’m not going anywhere,” he said.

Trudeau’s Liberals are about 20 percentage points behind the Conservatives, who would form a super majority government if an election were held today. The Liberals could end up in third or even fourth place.

Trudeau’s behavior of late, especially at last week’s Liberal caucus retreat in Nanaimo, BC, has been cited as uneven. Canada Proud noted the following based on a Toronto Star article.  "#REPORT: Justin Trudeau forced his caucus to sit through a presentation where he played the music from Rocky Balboa, comparing himself to the film's namesake protagonist played by Sylvester Stallone."