Trump holds 34-point lead over DeSantis among California Republicans: poll

A new poll has revealed that among California Republican voters, 2024 GOP frontrunner Donald Trump has a 34-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

According to Emerson College Polling, 53.4 percent of California Republican voters said they would likely vote for Trump in the Republican primary, while 18.9 percent said they would vote for DeSantis. 

Former Vice President Mike Pence received 10.2 percent of the support, while former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley received 5.9 percent and Senator Tim Scott received 3.7 percent. "Someone else" received the next-highest support at 2.4 percent, while Vivek Ramaswamy and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie each received two percent, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum received 0.9 percent, and New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu received 0.6 percent.

“Trump’s base continues to be voters under 50 and those without a college degree, while DeSantis performs strongest among voters over 50 and those with a college degree, but still trails Trump,” said Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling.

“Trump leads DeSantis 60 percent to 14 percent among those under 50 compared to 49 percent to 21 percent among those over 50. Among voters without a college degree, Trump leads DeSantis 62 percent to 15 percent, compared to those with a college degree where he leads 46 percent to 25 percent.”

Among Democrat voters, 71.8 percent said they would vote for Joe Biden in the primary, compared to 17 percent who said they would vote for Robert Kennedy Jr. 6.6 percent said they would vote for author Marianne Williamson, and 4.6 percent said they would vote for someone else.

In a hypothetical rematch between Trump and Biden, 31.7 percent of California voters overall said they would vote for Trump, while 53.5 percent said they would vote for Biden. 9.6 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 5.2 percent were still undecided.

In a hypothetical matchup between DeSantis and Biden, 28.4 percent said they would vote for DeSantis, while 53.7 percent said they would vote for Biden. 10.3 percent said they would vote for someone else, and 7.6 percent were undecided.

“Trump outperforms DeSantis against Biden by four points among California voters, mirroring his margin of support compared to DeSantis in Iowa and the last Emerson national survey,” Kimball noted. 

The poll was conducted between June 4 and 7 of 1,056 registered California voters and has a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

The poll was conducted before the indictment against Trump was announced, which Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group said could result in a boost in support for the frontrunner.

Cahaly told Human Events host Jack Posobiec on Monday that he "had the opportunity to be in the belly of the beast this weekend at the Georgia convention," adding that the indictment appears to have increased the support of the former president.

Cahaly noted that support for Trump mellows when he is not in the news, and support surges when he is.