Recent polling data from The Hill/Decision Desk HQ has revealed that former President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in North Carolina by 5.4 percent in a three-way race that includes independent candidate Robert F Kennedy Jr, based on an average of 24 polls. Additionally, the polling has revealed that Kennedy is attracting more support from President Biden than Trump in the state.
Since January, Trump has consistently maintained a lead of 4 to 6 percent over Biden in North Carolina in the two-way race. Trump narrowly won the state in 2020 by less than 2 percent.
In a head-to-head matchup, Trump is beating Biden 48.6 to 44.3 percent, based on an average of 33 polls.
In the three-way race, Trump is currently polling at 43.6 percent compared to Biden's 38.2 percent. Kennedy, who has gained ballot access in North Carolina, is currently polling at 8.1 percent. This support appears to be drawing more votes from Biden than from Trump, shedding light on voter dynamics and speculation about which candidate Kennedy would impact more.
Decision Desk HQ highlighted in a video on polling averages from Monday the fact that only seven states are considered true swing states in the upcoming election: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Six of these states were won by Trump in 2016, but six were also claimed by Biden in 2020. In the 2020 election, all seven swing states were decided by margins of less than 3 percentage points.
Additional polling by the Wall Street Journal recently found that Trump holds commanding leads between 2 and 8 percentage points in all of these swing states other than Wisconsin. However, Biden’s lead in Wisconsin is only present when third-party candidates are factored in. In a head-to-head matchup, the two candidates are tied.
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