Trump leads Biden by .5 points in latest RCP poll average, Biden down 7 points from 2020

September 17 marked the highest Trump has polled this year against Biden, at 45.6 percent.

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Hannah Nightingale Washington DC
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2024 GOP frontrunner Donald Trump is now leading President Biden in the RealClearPolitics average of polls.

According to the polling data aggregator, Trump is up 0.5 points over Biden, with Trump at 45.1 percent and Biden at 44.6 percent. In the final results of the 2020 election, Biden won with 51.4 percent of the vote, compared to Trump's 46.9 percent, marking a 6.8 percent difference from the 2020 election to September polling for Biden.

The flip from favoring Biden to Trump occurred on September 12, with it previously flipping in Biden’s favor in July.

September 17 marked the highest Trump has polled this year against Biden, with 45.6 percent.

This is a shift from the 2020 election cycle, where Biden dominated the polling with as much as an 11.8 percent lead over Trump in September of 2019, and as little as a 4-point lead as seen in January of 2020.

Trump is also up in polling compared to the 2020 cycle.

A recent Quinnipiac poll conducted between September 7 and 11 found that 46 percent of 1726 registered voters would vote for Trump.

A poll from the same institution, conducted between October 28 and November 1 of 1516 likely voters found that 39 percent would vote for Trump, a 7-point difference.

Overall, Trump ended the 2020 election cycle averaging 46.9 points compared to Biden’s 51.4, according to RealClearPolitics.

The change in polling comes as Trump is set to skip the second GOP primary debate, instead holding a rally with striking autoworkers in Detroit.

It also comes as Biden’s approval rating has remained low, with just 41.5 percent approving and 54 percent disapproving of his job performance, according to averages from RealClearPolitics.

Biden’s approval rating plummeted in August of 2021, amid the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal that saw the deaths of 13 servicemembers. His approval rating has not gone back in his favor since then.

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