Trump leads Biden in Michigan in post-conviction poll: Mitchell Research

A new Michigan general election poll has found that former President Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over President Joe Biden. In a head-to-head matchup, Trump leads with 48.2 percent of the vote compared to Biden's 47.6 percent, with 4.2 percent of voters undecided.

When third-party candidates are included, Trump’s lead widens slightly. Trump secures 46.3 percent of the vote, while Biden garners 45.1 percent. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the most popular third-party candidate, with 3.3 percent of the vote. The poll was conducted on June 3 of 697 likely voters and has a margin of error of 6.9 percent.

This poll shows a tightening race since the last survey conducted on May 20-21, 2024. At that time, Trump led by a wider margin of 2 percent. The recent poll, conducted post-Trump's conviction, shows Biden performing slightly better among Democrats, securing 95 percent of their support compared to Trump's 93 percent among Republicans. Trump's support among Democrats has dropped from 9 percent to 4 percent, while Biden's support among Republicans has increased from 4 percent to 5 percent. Among Independents, Trump now leads with 47 percent to Biden's 40 percent.

Steve Mitchell, president of Mitchell Research & Communications, Inc. which conducted the poll, commented on the significance of the findings and how Trump’s recent convictions may have played a role.

“Trump's lead has narrowed from two percent to point six percent since our last survey conducted May 20-21, 2024, before Trump’s conviction. In the May 2024 survey Trump had solidified his base better than Biden but post-conviction, Biden is doing slightly better with Democrats (95 percent) than Trump has with Republicans (93 percent).” Mitchell pointed out.

Michigan's role in the upcoming election could be pivotal for Trump's potential victory in November. According to Real Clear Politics polling averages, Trump currently leads outside the margin of error in key swing states such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, and Florida. Additionally, Trump has a notable lead in Nevada, a state that has not voted Republican since 2004 when voters chose to re-elect George W. Bush.

If Trump were to secure victories in these states, he would need to win only one of the three critical states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin—to achieve an electoral victory. Currently, Trump holds a slight edge over Biden in all three of these states, although the results are within the margin of error in most polls. Trump carried these states in 2016 but lost them in 2020.