Robert C. Cahaly and the Trafalgar Group released findings that suggest Trump is has the edge over Biden in Florida, a key battleground in the upcoming 2020 presidential election.
New @trafalgar_group
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 30, 2020
#2020Election #BattlegroundState #FLpoll conducted 10/25-28 &released exclusively tonight on @IngrahamAngle shows growing Trump lead:
49.6% @realDonaldTrump,
46.9% @JoeBiden,
1.5% @Jorgensen4POTUS,
1.4% Other,
0.7% Und. See Report: https://t.co/sqfSQES0GP pic.twitter.com/Qva72lE3i1
The poll demonstrates that President Trump is 2.3 points ahead of the democratic nominee, a significant enough lead to worry the Biden campaign, but small enough to still throw Florida’s 29 electoral votes into question with only three days until election night. As in 2016, Florida will be one of eight states that could very well determine the election’s outcome. These include: Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
At this time Trafalgar has not released the sample size or the margin of error for their latest results in Florida on their website, but voice confidence in their findings.
Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar, went on Fox News and expressed that his survey methods account for numbers that would go largely untouched by conventional polls. He cited an external fear of pressure among more conservative voters that might prevent them from sharing their political opinions unless guaranteed anonymity. Trafalgar, Cahaly explained, puts a specific emphasis on making participants feel comfortable with their polling services.
“Polls are predominantly missing the hidden Trump vote, the missing Trump voter,” Cahaly said. “these people are a lot more hesitant to participate in polls. If you’re not compensating for this, if you’re not giving them a poll they can participate in, you’re not going to get honest answers.”
Donald Trump is counting on Florida for a repeat performance. If he fails to take the heavyweight state, his path to 270 becomes substantially more difficult.
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