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Trump to win Ohio: Decision Desk HQ

With more than 94 percent reporting, Trump is ahead by 8 percent. As the vote count continues, the results demonstrate a departure from a number of polling predictions.

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President Donald Trump is projected to win the state of Ohio, according to Decision Desk HQ. The Ohio vote, a Trump stronghold in 2016, has come down to a margin closer than what either Republicans or Democrats would have liked it to be, swinging sharply from one candidate to the other. With more than 94 percent reporting, Trump is ahead by 8 percent.

At the outset of the election, Ohio was solidly blue; Biden led with a 15-point lead. By 9:15 pm, Trump had cut down that lead to 4 percent. An hour later, the President had flipped that number, gaining a lead of 5 points.  

In 2016, Donald Trump handily won the state of Ohio by, adding its 18 electoral votes towards his path to 270 and the Oval Office by a margin of eight percentage points. Four years later, Trump must either maintain his lead in Ohio again or win one of the other Midwest states—perhaps either Wisconsin or Michigan—to make a similar repeat performance.

As the vote count continues, the results demonstrate a departure from a number of polling predictions.

A poll from Quinnipiac University found that Biden held a comfortable lead over Trump going into the last week before the election, beating him 47 percent to the President’s 43. FiveThirtyEight polling services estimate the gap to be wider; their analysis suggest Biden is sitting closer to 50 percent while the president averages 47 points.

Trump has maintained a confident demeanor, citing his deceive win in 2016.

"And I just saw that we're tied in Ohio. I don't think so," Trump said. "They say President Trump may have a slim lead in Ohio. Nah, they're fake polls. Remember last time? They said 'oh he's going to lose Ohio."

His confidence appears to have paid off.

Throughout October, Biden placed noticeable effort in winning over residents from Ohio. Since the last election, it's been though thought to be a solidly red state, but that hasn’t always been the case. In 2012, Barak Obama took the state, winning the state by 1.9 percent. In the past 12 presidential elections, Ohio has gone to the winning presidential candidate—a minority of five of those were Democratic.

In a historic turnout, 3.4 million Ohio voters submitted their ballots early, crushing previous early-voting numbers. Never before has Ohio seen more than two-million voters submit their ballots before election night—a number that already accounts for more than 60 percent of total votes cast four year ago.

In a rally earlier this month, Biden told Ohio voters that he would be counting on them.

"The auto industry that supported one in eight Ohioans was on the brink," Biden said. "Barack and I bet on you, and it paid off."

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