TAGHVA: Trump's brash isolationism will destabilize the world

Earlier this week, one of the last in Donald Trump's band of generals, Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis handed in his resignation letter.

He did so because during an argument he realized he couldn't convince the president to reverse course and leave American troops in Syria.

Failing to do so Mattis returned to his office, and had the following letter distributed, and soon after it was released by the Pentagon.

Jim Mattis's Resignation Letter

Hours later, according to the Daily Mail, Trump also ordered a partial withdrawal from Afghanistan, pulling out half of the 14,000 U.S. troops out of a conflict he has long claimed America should never have entered.

While the President could have an argument in opposing the initial entry into nations such as Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, the current exit from these nations will likely be the largest foreign affairs blunder in Donald Trump's career.

How will the US withdrawal from Syria affect the world?

While ISIS is a former shell of itself, it is by no means defeated.

Leaving Syria will likely end in a fully entrenched Syrian - Russian - Iranian - Turkish committee finishing the remainder of the job.

While that could provide savings to the American people, it will also provide that coalition with control of much of the middle east, including the creation of a complete land bridge for Iran stretching directly to America's chief allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Furthermore America's other ally in the region, the Kurds will be left to fend for themselves in between an aggressive Turkey, and a potentially aggressive Iran.

How will the US withdrawal from Afghanistan affect the world?

The President has shown some willingness to execute a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan, and has pulled out half of the current troops in the nation.

This is extremely worrying, given the fact that the Taliban currently controls anywhere from 44%-61% of Afghanistan.

While there could be peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban very soon,  any peace deal would look like a government with intense Taliban elements, and further de-legitimatize the tiny moderate portions left in the Afghan bureaucracy.

Leaving once again an ISIS-like state in the middle east, billions spent and nothing to show for it.

Great power dynamics are at play

Some experts have argued that this exit points to a direct victory for Russia, and in some ways they are correct. But the victory and losses here go far deeper than just the control of the middle east or a quick win for Russia.

The collective losses in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan could also signal to the world that the era of hegemonic-like US dominance over the international order is on its way out.

Here the United States's real principle opponent, China is the real winner.

This will likely push more nations to follow a Chinese lead status quo, and that could into the most intense period great powers competition since the fall of the Soviet Union.

If history has taught us anything, it is that when great powers compete they typically end up in a war(s) until a new global or regional order is established.

U.S. withdrawal from the region leads to a power vacuum

Could you imagine a world in which China, a nation which currently imprisons over one million Uighurs for their faith, is allowed to dictate the norms of global decision making?

Given how much that literally resembles the internment of Jewish individuals in Germany, it is not hard to imagine how quickly a more aggressive China could end up in a global war.

Now some would argue that the United States is leaps and bounds ahead of China, they would say look at the difference in the nations respective defense spending!

The United States does currently spend more than three times China on that file, including 50% more as a factor of GDP.  But there are key areas of difference that are extremely important.

Notably, Chinese expenditures on the military may not actually appear as they do.

According to Army Chief of Staff Mark Milley, and a report from Bloomberg, when you factor in the relative costs of employment, and look at just investments into modern equipment, China and the United States are actually tied.

Now while China and the US are currently matched in equipment expenditure, the situation will likely become far more favourable to the Chinese in the near future.

As China's extremely large population alongside its advancement from industrial to a high-tech economy continues, we will see its GDP surpass that of the United States in the next twenty years.

For example, if China maintains an average GDP growth rate of 6.5% it will surpass the United States in 2029, and be almost double the US's GDP by 2040.

Even if GDP growth slows down to 4.6%, the United States will be surpassed by 2036.

When that occurs (and it will shortly, given the immense amount of productive slack left in the Chinese labor force), the key economic tools and military tools, that have allowed the United States to dictate global deal-making will almost all but vanish.

This is even truer if the EU breaks apart due to populist revolt, or becomes a solidified block which decidedly opposes the current US interests.

This kind of disunited world worries me and it should worry every individual who supports the massive advancements we have made towards a peaceful rules-based global order led by a freedom and equality supporting nation.

What do you think about the recent announcement made by Donald Trump? Should The United States have pulled out?

Are we looking at the end of US dominance worldwide?

Join the conversation by commenting below!