Black voters shift toward Trump as Kamala fails to match Biden’s 2020 numbers: NYT/Sienna poll

A recent New York Times poll has revealed that black voters are shifting away from the Democratic Party more than expected. While Vice President Kamala Harris is still projected to win a majority of black votes, her support is notably lower than the level Joe Biden achieved in 2020.

The poll found that eight in 10 black voters nationwide plan to vote for Harris, an increase from the 74 percent who initially backed Biden before he dropped out of the race. However, in the 2020 election, Biden secured 90 percent of the black vote, marking Harris' 80 percent as a significant drop, especially given the Democratic Party’s reliance on black voters and the tightness of the upcoming election in swing states.



Though Harris is expected to receive overwhelming support from black voters, GOP nominee Donald Trump is gaining more traction with this demographic than previously anticipated. His campaign has targeted black voters, particularly black men. According to the poll, 15 percent of black voters now say they will vote for Trump, a six-point increase from 2020.

The New York Times attributes this shift largely to a belief among black voters that the Democratic Party has failed to fulfill its promises to the black community while continuing to rely on their votes. The poll also found that 40 percent of black voters under 30 believe Republicans are more likely to keep their campaign promises than Democrats.

Additionally, 83 percent of black women back Harris, with 12 percent supporting Trump and five percent still undecided. Among black men, Harris holds 70 percent support, a 15-point drop from Biden's 85 percent in 2020.

This trend has prompted former President Barack Obama to urge black men to support Kamala Harris. In a speech in Pennsylvania on Thursday, Obama suggested that the reluctance to back Harris is due to sexism.

“You’re coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses, I’ve got a problem with that,” Obama said in Pittsburg. “Because part of it makes me think – and I’m speaking to men directly – part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren’t feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you’re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.”

However, the shift largely appears to be related to key political issues. The poll found that 56 percent of black voters believe the US should focus less on international issues and more on domestic concerns, a stance that aligns with Trump’s America first rhetoric.

Additionally, 40 percent support his border wall, 41 percent agree with deporting illegal immigrations, and 47 percent feel crime in large cities is out of control. Nearly 75 percent of black voters rated the economy as fair or poor, and over 70 percent say they’ve had to cut back on groceries due to rising prices.

The poll surveyed 589 Black voters between September 29 and October 6 as part of a nationwide study. In response to these trends, Harris' campaign has launched a tour focusing on historically black universities and is working to rally black voters in key battleground states this weekend.