Three out of four opinion polls released in the last week show the Liberals and Conservatives in a statistical tie.
Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole and his advisors are said to be extremely optimistic about recent polling data showing the Conservatives and Liberals neck-and-neck amongst likely voters.
Another bright light for the Conservatives is the self-described centrist voter pool, which more than half say they are unhappy with Trudeau's government.
A Leger poll for Postmedia shows the Trudeau Liberals at 32 percent while the Conservatives sit at 31 percent. This data is backed up by another Leger poll and an Abacus poll, with 34 percent for the Liberals and 32 percent for the Conservatives. The NDP stills holds on with around 18 percent in recent polling also.
Polling numbers are also a mixed bag for the Conservatives, particularly for O'Toole. Two out of three voters still see O'Toole unfavourably, with female voters being extremely cold to the Conservative leader.
Former leader Andrew Sheer had the same issue, lagging behind Trudeau by double digits among female voters for most of his tenure.
63 percent of voters say their trust in the federal government has been eroded during the pandemic, and only 18 percent of voters say they want the Liberal re-elected. This is a potential opening for O'Toole if he can capitalize on it. Many Conservatives have criticized O'Toole for being a dud and saying one thing in the leadership race and another thing after being elected.
O'Toole's recent backing of carbon pricing has been seen as a stab in the back to Western voters. O'Toole has also been criticized for sidelining any internal threats, like former leadership rival Peter McKay and former finance critic Pierre Poilievre. Although the polling data seems optimistic, pundits say much of where the Liberal are losing ground is places the Conservatives were ahead anyway.
The consensus is for O'Toole to pull ahead in a potential fall election; he will need to convince voters in Ontario and women that the Conservatives is the choice for them. O'Toole positioned the Conservatives as firmly centre-right and has even appealed to union members saying they have more in common with the Conservatives than the left-leaning parties.
In all, the O'Toole team is said to be happy where they stand, considering how much money Trudeau has given away and all his publicity in the past year.