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Bloomberg recently had Portfolio Manager David D. Wolf of Fidelity Investments to comment on the state of the Canadian economy ahead of the federal budget.
Wolf has also been an advisor to the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and says that the Canadian dollar could fall to a record low of $0.62 USD. The previous record was set in January 2002.
In percentage terms, it is not necessarily a devastating fall from our current 75 cents per dollar exchange rate. However, Wolf said that he personally believes that the country could already be in a state of recession.
His colleague David Tulk pointed out that even if there is technically no recession, it may very well feel like it to a “big part of the economy”.
This comes amid last quarter’s GDP numbers showing signs of bad news, which some fear could serve as an excuse for a large election year budget. The presented deficit might, however, be slightly lower than expected due to an unexpected increase in tax revenue.
The federal government had originally promised that the budget would be back in balance by this year.