Fed posts largest monthly core inflation gain since April under Biden-Harris admin

Core inflation rose more than expected and saw its largest monthly gain since April of this year after the Federal Reserve decreased the interest rates early last month. This comes as inflation and the economy have been top issues for voters going into the 2024 election.  

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), rose by 2.7 percent in September compared to the year prior and rose 0.3 percent from August, the largest monthly gain since April. The PCE eliminates the prices of food as well as energy, which can be more volatile at times in the economy depending on circumstances.  

The 2.7 percent is also higher than the expected 2.6 percent from economists' forecasts, per the New York Post. The numbers could bolster a case for slower rate cuts from the Fed as the agency cut the rates by a half a percentage point in early September. However, the overall rate of inflation was at 2.1 percent year over year, the lowest it has been since early 2021. 

“The year-over-year core PCE print indicated a 2.7 percent increase suggesting that the Fed is still on a bumpy course in this last mile to quell inflation and declare victory," Chief Global Strategist for LPL Financial said of the increase. The Fed may need to pull back on its rate decreases to slow down the inflation that has hampered the economy under the Biden-Harris administration, Krosby argued.  

"Moreover, there’s a nearly palpable narrative taking hold that the election – rather than offering the market a sense of certainty – will do just the opposite, causing volatility to spike significantly higher,” he added. The Fed is expected to cut rates more after its Nov. 6-7 meeting, but most are expecting a cut of around a quarter of a point instead of a half point. 

University of Michigan economist Joanne Hsu told the Post, “All year, consumers have repeatedly told us that the trajectory of the economy hinges on who becomes the next president.” 

“Given the close nature of the presidential race, many consumers will be updating their expectations of the economy after the election is resolved, and sentiment may be somewhat unstable in the months ahead as consumers form their views on what the next presidency will look like,” Hsu added.

Trump as well as Harris have made their bids on who will do better on the economy during their campaigns; however, the GOP nominee has usually won out on the subject in comparison to Harris.