According to a Mainstreet Research poll released on September 10, the Green Party has overtaken the NDP and now sit at 11 percent. The NDP have now dropped down to eight percent, the lowest of the four leading parties in the country.
The Liberals have also opened up a moderate 4-point lead over the Conservatives following weeks of billion-dollar promises to various constituencies. Conservatives currently sit at 34 percent, while the Liberal Party leads at a comfortable 38 percent.
According to Mainstreet Research, the poll was conducted between September 6-8 and included 1876 Canadians. They report that the survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.26 percent and is accurate 19 times out of 20.
“This is bad news for Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives as the Liberals have crossed the 40% mark in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and Ontario,” said Quito Maggi, President and CEO of Mainstreet Research. “If the election were held today, the Liberals would comfortably win a majority.”
“The solace for the other parties is that the election is not going to be held today and that they will have the entire writ period to chip into the Liberal lead.”
Maggi also cites major divisions between voters along regional lines, with Western Canada siding more with Conservatives and Eastern/Central Canada siding more with Liberals.
Breakout tables derived from the study show that the largest voting block for the Liberals will likely be women from Ontario and Atlantic Canada, while Conservatives seem to derive the bulk of their support from men living in B.C. and especially Alberta and the Prairies.
36.3 percent of all women who were surveyed say the will vote for the Liberal Party, while only 30.3 percent of men who were surveyed say they will do the same. Conversely, 36.6 percent of men surveyed say the will vote Conservative, while only 26.1 percent of women say they will do the same.
The largest proportion within a province that say they are voting Liberal are in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, with 40.3 percent of those surveyed in Ontario saying they will vote Liberal and a 45.4 percent of those in Atlantic Canada saying they will vote Liberal.
The largest groups within a province that say they are voting Conservative are from B.C., Alberta, and the Prairies. 34.7 percent of those surveyed in B.C. say they will vote Conservative. In the Prairies, the proportion of those voting Conservative is 48.5 percent, and in Alberta it is a whopping 58.2 percent of the province.