Swing state voters back Trump over Kamala: Harvard/Harris poll

The Harvard/Harris poll found that among early voters in battleground states, 48 percent have cast their ballot for Trump while 47 percent have voted for Harris. Among early voters overall, 51.4 percent have cast their ballot for Harris while 42.6 have cast their ballot for Trump.

Among likely voters in battleground states, 49 percent said they would vote for Trump if the election was held today, while 47 percent said they would vote for Harris.

Driving Trump’s lead among likely voters overall are independent voters, with 44 percent saying they would vote for Trump over the 40 percent who said they would vote for Harris; Asian voters, of which 66 percent said they would vote for Trump; rural voters, of which 49 percent of likely voters said they would vote for Trump compared to 47 percent for Harris; and rural voters, with 56 percent saying they would vote for Trump.

Trump also led among white and male likely voters and likely voters with at least a high school degree but less than a four-year college degree. Additionally, Trump saw a 5-point lead among likely voters who said they have made up their minds on who they would vote for when they go to the polls.

Among those who had already voted overall, Harris currently leads by three points among independent voters, one point among male voters, 11 points among Asian voters, and 13 points among suburban voters. Trump leads among high school graduates by two points, white voters by one point, and rural voters by 17 points.

Overall, 45 percent of voters said they plan to vote early in 2024, 50 percent said they would vote on Election Day, and 5 percent said they do not plan to vote.

The poll was conducted between October 11 and 13 of 2,596 likely voters and 898 battleground state voters and has a margin of error of 1.8 percent.