Political expert warns California could secede in next ten years, sparking new Civil War

A professor at the University of California-Santa Barbara has issued a warning that California could attempt to secede from the United States within the next decade, potentially sparking a broader civil war across the country.

Political economist Benjamin Cohen, who has authored 20 books, said in a recent analysis that the risk of political polarization in America reaching a breaking point is “substantially greater than zero.”

Cohen outlined a scenario in which California declares independence by 2035 due to escalating tensions between the state and the federal government, which he said could provoke a dramatic response from Washington.

In a mock news bulletin of his hypothetical scenario, Cohen imagined a future where “President [JD] Vance has threatened a military takeover of state government in Sacramento, backed by National Guard troops from nearby red states. Armed conflict looks increasingly possible.”

Cohen argued that while the idea of state secession may seem implausible, the growing political and cultural divide in the country is fueling movements in so-called “dream states” that prioritize ideological goals over national unity.

“Identity can be a very powerful motivator,” Cohen said. “That's why I worry about the risk of civil war. When it comes to something as strong as a sense of community identity, rationalism falls by the wayside.”

Public concern appears to reflect those fears. A report by the Daily Mail highlighted a recent YouGov poll, which found that 40 percent of Americans believe it is “somewhat or very likely” that the United States will experience another civil war within the next 10 years.

However, experts remain divided over what such a conflict would look like, whether it would break along party lines or regional borders.

“It's difficult for me to imagine how things would divide up if there were a civil war,” Cohen noted in a university release. “But the probability of such a war is substantially greater than zero.”

In his new book ”Dream States: A Lurking Nightmare for the World Order,” Cohen warned that rising internal tensions in the US could see states being split in half.

“We tend to simplify geography by looking exclusively at the existing lines on a map that separate one sovereign state from another,” he explained. “The reality is there are many people within those states that are very unhappy with the arrangement. They'd prefer to draw the lines in a different way. In some cases, they're prepared to fight to redraw those lines.”