23 House Democrats have announced plans for retirement or their intention to seek another office in 2022, pointing to the potential for House Republicans to regain the majority in 2022.
Last week, three House Democrats, Reps. Stephanie Murphy of Florida, Lucille Roybal-Allard of California, and Albio Sires of New Jersey, announced that they would be retiring rather than seeking reelection in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections, according to Fox News.
In 2022, House GOP needs to win just 5 seats to regain the majority lost in the 2018 midterm elections.
History also points to the strong potential for a flip in the majority this upcoming election. According to Fox News, on average, the party that wins the White House in a presidential election loses 25 or more House seats in the following midterm election.
"And the once-in-a-decade congressional redistricting process is expected to favor the GOP, as Republicans control more state legislatures and governors' offices," Fox News reported.
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had predicted this loss in Democrat seats back in August, telling Fox News at the time: "Once you get past Thanksgiving and members go home, and they're Democrats and they've been challenged before and they're going to get beat up, Congress is not that great."
McCarthy also noted that with redistricting, House Democrats would have "new lines where they have to go meet new people."
McCarthy stated that House Democrats are "going to make a decision to retire, that's the best time so they can go get another job. When we get that retirement number up higher, into double-digit figures, the whole thing becomes a different play."
In 2018, 23 House GOP retired, and just 10 House Democrats did the same. Without a well-known incumbent running in a midterm race, seats become vulnerable. So far, just 13 House Republicans have announced or indicated plans not to seek reelection for one reason or another.
"Only members themselves know why they decide to retire. But if there's an imbalance of retirements toward one party or another, it sometimes can tell us something about what the party with a lot of retirees thinks might happen in the midterms," Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the nonpartisan political handicapper Sabato's Crystal Ball, told Fox News.
Despite the large number of retirements, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, he reelection arm of House Democrats, boasted high fundraising totals and pointed to an edge over the Republicans.
"House Democrats are heading into the midterms with record-breaking fundraising numbers, earlier than ever investments in organizing, and an agenda that's wildly popular among battleground voters." DCCC spokesperson Chris Taylor told Fox News.
Taylor said that because "voters see Democratic members and candidates focused on rebooting the economy and getting folks back on the job," the DCCC's believes that "incumbent or not, we're confident in our ability to win the House yet again."
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