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With polls and reviews now emerging following the first French-language leaders debate, it’s becoming apparent that Andrew Scheer and the Conservatives struggled big time.
As a result, there is a much lower chance of the Conservatives surging to power on the back of a dominant performance in Canada’s second-largest province.
And that means there is a much higher chance of the Bloc Quebecois—who had a strong night in the debate—holding the balance of power in the upcoming Parliament.
That could be devastating for the country and could decimate Canada’s oil industry.
Consider this scenario:
The Conservatives win the most votes and seats, but fall short of a majority.
The Bloc, who are staunchly opposed to Western Canadian energy—despite demanding Quebec keep getting huge transfer payments funded largely by Western Canadian oil—end up with the balance of power in Parliament.
While they wouldn’t likely form an official coalition with the Liberals, there’s little doubt that they would be far more likely to support a Liberal minority, rather than a Conservative minority.
They would, of course, demand things that would be horrible for the Canadian energy sector, including the possible demise of the Trans Mountain Expansion, and a clear rejection of any new pipelines through Quebec.
Beyond that, just think of what investors would be looking at. If your choice is between investing in the US energy industry, where the US federal government has been quite supportive, or a Canadian energy sector being strangled by a hostile federal government propped up by anti-Canadian energy separatists, what would you pick?
So, even the prospect of a Liberal minority government propped up by the Separatist Bloc Quebecois could weigh on the energy industry, even before any hostile legislation is passed.
And if that becomes a reality, Canada’s energy industry will be in serious trouble.
There’s also a tremendous irony in the fact that if the Separatist Bloc props up the Liberals, it could dramatically increase the chance of Canada breaking up, but not from Quebec leaving. Instead, Western Separatism would surge.
Imagine how much anger and totally justified rage there will be in the West if a Liberal federal government screws over the energy industry at the urging of Quebec separatists who want our country to break up?
It’s a recipe for disaster, and it’s another reason why anything other than a decisive Conservative win could hold tremendous danger for the future of Canadian unity.