Betting market shows high probability of Biden dropping out of presidential race

A growing number of those in the betting market have put their money behind the prediction that Joe Biden will drop out of the presidential race. On Thursday evening a record 92 percent of users said they believed his campaign would soon be over.

While that number dropped on Thursday morning following reports that Biden's campaign chair said he was "absolutely" staying in the race despite "some slippage in support," as of 10am PST a full 70 percent still bet that he was done.



According to Polymarket, the percentage of users who have bet that Biden will drop out has increased dramatically over the past few months. As of May 1, there was only a 13 percent chance, with that number rising to 19 percent the day before the debate against Donald Trump.

In the days following the debate, the number shot up to 70 percent, before falling again. During the week after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, it rose again, hitting a new high. 

Polymarket also allows users to bet on who they think will be the Democratic nominee and who will win the presidential election. In the former, Biden is in second place at 32 percent, trailing Kamala Harris by 18 points. In the latter, he is fourth, at just 7 percent. Ahead of him there are Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and "Other Democrat Politician."

As the Associated Press reports, congressional Democrats are divided on whether Biden should step aside. A number have called on him to do so, while others have warned that the party would be doing itself a disservice to change candidates so late in the race. 

"The ticket that exists right now is the ticket that we can win on," House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. "There is of course work to be done, and that in fact is the case because we are an evenly divided country." He said whether or not Biden continues running is "[Biden's] decision to make."