Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead has evaporated in the states of Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, according to the RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling average. President Donald Trump has taken the lead in all four states.
The former Vice President still maintains a small lead in Florida, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, although his leads in some of these states has dwindled significantly in the past week. He also remains in the lead in national polls, leading by a popular vote margin by 7.2%.
Biden's lead remains much higher in other rust belt states such as Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Trump maintains a 2% lead in Iowa, 1% in Georgia, 0.2% in North Carolina, and 1.4% in Ohio. Biden was leading in many of these states as recently as one week ago.
Some pollsters have suggested that RCP's average is skewed by polls from the Trafalgar Group, which has shown more favourable polling numbers for Trump than other pollsters have. Trafalgar's results were more accurate in the previous election compared to other pollsters.
Nate Cohn, a polling "expert" from the New York Times, suggested that RCP is a "casualty" of the election, further arguing that even if Trump does win, RCP's average is not "fairly representing the polls."
One small casualty of this election: the RealClearPolitics average. It's never been perfect, but I've cited it in the past as a simple no-questions-asked average. Unfortunately, that's not possible anymore.
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) November 3, 2020
Cohn argued that RCP's average makes use of arbitrary cutoff dates to benefit the President.
Pollster Nate Silver agreed with Cohn, despite saying "there are many things I like about RCP." Nate Silver has also warned that those who follow the polls should not underestimate Trump, arguing as recently as Monday that the President still has a chance at winning the necessary 270 electoral votes to declare victory.
Endorse this, even though there are many things I like about RCP. But also, this became a tricky cycle for polling aggregation at the end. As much or more good polling than ever, but also, a *lot* of spam in the final few weeks of the campaign. https://t.co/meCN9T3Olw
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2020
American election results are expected to start coming in at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time as polling stations close in the eastern half of the country.
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