Data that has been recently presented by The Public Health Agency is intended to show what we know of the COVID-19 pandemic's effects so far and what is likely to happen in the future. The federal modelling is optimistic about Canada's efforts to contain the spread of coronavirus, but has also been updated.
What's positive is that the epidemic is beginning to slow by comparison to the last data that was presented. The latest modelling shows that the number of confirmed cases in Canada doubles every 16 days, a drastic drop from every three days which was the case several weeks ago.
The curve is beginning to flatten due to the social distancing measures and the collective efforts of Canadian citizens, according to Dr. Tam. Before the social distancing measures were implemented the average case of COVID-19 in Canada infected 2.19 other people, that number has now been reduced to infecting just one other person.
The eventual goal is the have the rate of infection reduced to less than one person per case on average until the epidemic peters out.
On the other hand, the new data tells us that the death toll turned out to be much higher than predicted. Dr. Tam said that the death toll predicted on data released April 9 was lower than what it is today. The latest modelling predicts somewhere between 3,277 and 3,883 deaths by May 5 and total cases overall are predicted to be between 53,196 and 66,835.
It's most likely that the newest cases will come from Quebec, Ontario and Alberta. Prince Edward Island, the Northwest Territories and the Yukon appear to have no more community transmission at this time.
The majority of deaths to worldwide, around 79 percent, are seniors living in longterm care facilities and other congregate living settings.
What is obvious from the data is that the social distancing measures that have been put in place, must maintain in place for a best possible outcome. If Canada retains its current measures, they predict to see around 376,00o cases of COVID-19 from now until the end of the pandemic with the death toll ranging between 4,00 and 44,000.
"Canada is making progress to slow the spread and bring the epidemic under control, thanks to the commitment of Canadians, who are following public health advice to protect themselves and others," states the document."
"It is critically important that we maintain our current public health measures until we have achieved epidemic control for the first wave. Relaxing controls too quickly could squander our collective efforts to date and put us at risk of future epidemic waves."
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