EXCLUSIVE: The military ambitions of the 2020 Conservative leadership race

With the Conservative leadership race coming to a close, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole are expected to be at the top of ballots.

MacKay was a prominent cabinet minister in both terms of the Harper administration. O’Toole was a military retiree elected in a 2012 by-election, entering cabinet only in the administration's final year.

The two front runners have released platforms that look to grow the involvement of Canada’s military beyond its borders. They are calling for Canada to meet NATO commitments, increase its military operations in eastern Europe, take on a more aggressive policy with China, and expand its Arctic forces.

This foreign policy vision of O’Toole’s and MacKay’s relies on the building up of the Canadian military to suit their call for a more aggressive international front. It is exactly "diplomacy and dialogue," says MacKay, that is "exploited by authoritarian leaders." Both have a budgetary plans to hit NATO spending targets of 2 percent of GDP.

Altogether, NATO’s 29 members shared roughly 54 percent of global 2019 military spending. NATO’s most prominent member, the US, leads the world’s share of spending at 38 percent, followed distantly by China at 14 percent.

At the moment, Canada’s defence expenditures are around 1.3 percent of GDP or $22 billion, making Canada one of the world’s top 15 military spenders. Reaching NATO's 2 percent of GDP would have meant an investment of over $34 billion in 2019.

The defence record of the 2006 to 2015 Conservative administration which MacKay, and later O’Toole, helped form, included reductions in Canada’s peacekeeping forces from 382 in 2005, to less than 200 every following year, with Harper declining two peacekeeping requests from the UN in 2008 and 2010. Yet, between 2010 and 2013, Canada’s military spending was brought to its highest levels since the Second World War.

This growth was owed largely to Canada’s increasing involvement in NATO—first in Afghanistan, from 2001 to 2014, then in Libya in 2011.

The Afghanistan Record

For the near entirety of the Afghanistan war, MacKay was Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Defence. He prominently refused to begin negotiations with the Taliban, recently underway, and was implicated in the scandal over the torture of Afghan detainees.

O’Toole begins his entire platform in praise of a mission he sees as an example of the “freedom, opportunity and respect” that Canada displays domestically.

The NATO invasion of Afghanistan was triggered by the decision of US officials to end negotiations over the Taliban’s extradition of al-Qaeda's Osama Bin Laden. In the first eight and a half weeks of the US-UK bombing that overthrew the Taliban from government, at least 3,700 Afghan civilians were killed. Beginning in 2001, Canadian Forces entered, charged with eliminating the remaining Taliban and al Qaeda forces and with providing security and training.

The war in Afghanistan took the lives of 158 Canadian soldiers. They died from landmines, roadside bombs, improvised explosive devices, and friendly fire. 175 members of the armed forces, some deployed in Afghanistan, have taken their own lives since 2010. 6,700 veterans of the war are currently receiving support for PTSD. MacKay admitted in 2014 that the “ferocity of the mission” had not “dawned” on him and other leaders. The NATO mission in Afghanistan ended in 2014, with a total of 26,000 civilians dead from war-related violence.

Canadian counter terrorism experts suspect increases in Canada’s military presence in Afghanistan resulted in growing retaliatory domestic terrorist attacks. Canadian Major General Andrew Leslie explained to journalists that “every time you kill an angry young man overseas, you’re creating fifteen more who will come after you.”

Under the NATO-backed government of Hamid Karzai, human rights abuses persisted with only modest improvements. Internal US documents, leaked under the “Afghanistan Papers,” revealed deep skepticism among officials that the billions being put into Afghanistan were producing worthwhile developmental results. A prominent economist privately confessed, “we spent so much money and there is so little to show for it.”

Estimates for the costs of Canada’s Afghanistan engagement by the Rideau Institute in 2008 put the price tag well above $20 billion.

Mackay’s Libya Policy

O’Toole was not yet elected during NATO’s mission Libya. MacKay, then Defence Minister, voted on and spoke in support of beginning a mission to establish a “no-fly zone.” He recognized at the outset that the mission could become a bombing campaign. He later voted and pushed to extend the mission.

A NATO presence in Libya in 2011 was launched following reports of Libya’s President Muammar al-Gaddafi using his air force against protesters in the country. NATO set up a no-fly-zone using member-states warplanes and soon began to fly sorties in support of the NTC, a group claiming to represent rebel forces. There is evidence that access to Libya’s large oil reserves was a chief concern pushing Canadian intervention. This was also likely the case with French officials who listed in leaked documents that securing the country’s oil reserves was behind their bid for regime-change.

Canadian Lt-Gen. Charles Bouchard took command of the entire NATO mission and Canadian planes participated in 10% of NATO airstrikes in the country. Human Rights Watch has confirmed more than 40 women and children were killed by NATO bombings at sites with no military targets. Sirte, a city of 100,000 was bombarded “indiscriminate[ly]” in a two-month siege. People died in Sirte hospitals from a lack of oxygen, with bombs destroying schools and other infrastructure.

Once Gaddafi was deposed and NATO left the country, Libya continued to be in a state of severe instability. The overthrow of Gaddafi led to the armed factionalization of the country and the renewal of violent civil war that lasts into the present.

In October 2014, both O’Toole and MacKay voted and spoke strongly in favour of Canada entering an American-led bombing campaign against ISIL after it seized control of populated areas in Iraq and Syria. Security experts proposed alternatives including a UN-backed combat mission to reduce civilian casualties and garner local support, and substantial increases in humanitarian aid. From 2014 to 2016 (when Canada exited), 25,000 ISIL fighters were killed and between 1,004 and 1419 civilians died from the airstrike campaign.  

Arming and Training the Ukrainian Forces

NATO member states are currently providing military aid to the Ukrainian government as armed conflict in its eastern regions continues.

O’Toole plans to “stand up to Russian aggression and support the Ukraine” with fresh contributions to the Ukrainian military. In maybe the most detailed section of his military platform, MacKay looks to also “expand” the Canadian-Ukrainian military relationship.

The situation in eastern Europe intensified after the 2014 Euromaidan protests which overthrew an elected Ukrainian government. Substantial portions of the population in eastern Ukraine resisted the revolution and pushed for separation as Russian forces began entering Crimea. In Crimea, where 64 percent of the population was Russian and support for integration into Russia polling in the majority, a referendum was quickly assembled. Though illegal, the separatist vote to join Russia was successful.

In Donbass, referendums were demanded to declare sovereignty from Ukraine but were refused. Local separatists began taking over government facilities in the spring of 2014.

With $1 billion in US military aid, the new Ukrainian government began an offensive for control over Donbass that included substantial shelling. Throughout the conflict, the great majority of shelling, which account for a substantial portion, if not the bulk, of the conflicts 3,300 civilian deaths, appear to have been performed by NATO-backed government forces attacking Donbass cities. In one early government shelling campaign, 17 people, including three children, were killed. An elderly home, a school, and multiple residences were destroyed.

The OHCHR, which has documented the human rights situation the closest of any organization in Ukraine, attributes 601 human rights violations to the Ukrainian government in the period between November 2017 and May 2019 (the only period when it kept a formal count of these violations) and attributed 468 infringements to separatist forces. The violations include sexual violence, torture, and arbitrary arrest.

Since May of 2019, Ukraine’s NATO-backed government has been responsible for, at least, 70 civilian casualties and rebel forces for 13. The government is accused of multiple war crimes including the targeting of water facilities and cluster bombing.

MacKay plans to give “lethal weapons” and RadarSat imagery equipment to the Ukrainian government. Through RadarSat technology the government would be able to monitor and target separatist forces, which could lead to further shelling in Donbass. O’Toole promises not to “rest” until there is a “united Ukraine.”

The Ukrainian government has largely ceased efforts to regain control of the Donbass region. In 2019, Ukrainians elected the pro-peace candidate, Volodymyr Zelensky, to president. The slow implementation and respect of ceasefire agreements has decreased casualties on both sides of the conflict.

Nonetheless, Canada’s military exports to Ukraine doubled between 2014 and 2018, reaching $5.2 million. Every six months since 2015 the Canadian military has sent 200 troops to Ukraine, training more than 17,000 members of its armed forces in Operation UNIFIER. As part of additional “security” and “economic” support, Canada has given over $700 million to Ukraine since 2014.

In 2016, Harper was awarded one of Ukraine’s highest honours for exceptional diplomatic efforts (Mackay was brought with him to Kyiv), initiating Operation UNIFIER,  now at a yearly cost of over $26 million, and supplying $11 million in weapons in 2014.

There is uncertainty among experts over whether Canadian aid is assisting extremist factions in the Ukrainian government. Groups like the Azov Battalion, with 10,000 active members, have “no more than half” their ranks made up of Nazis according to one of their drill sergeants (though a spokesperson later clarified with USA Today that only “10 to 20 percent” are truly Nazis). The militia, apart of the country’s National Guard, is accused of torturing with electricity and waterboarding, group raping a man with mental disabilities, and mass looting.

The Aidar Battalion, also members of the National Guard, share a similar ideology. They were accused of war crimes in an Amnesty International report. The battalion was found to have detained, beaten and tortured civilians in Donbass.

The Canadian military has trained 1,129 members of the National Guard, a unit of 46,000, as part of Operation UNIFIER.

MacKay looks to expand Operation UNIFIER, with O’Toole planning exchange programs for a “deeper relationship” between the Canadian and Ukrainian military.

The Threat of China

China is most often mentioned in MacKay’s platform when dealing with issues of security threats to Canadians. Accordingly, “rising tensions” in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Koreas, demand a “new approach,” namely, Canada’s military alignment with the QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) group, a forum facilitating military arrangements between the US, Japan, Australia, and India.

O’Toole does not make mention of the QUAD, although he desires to “recognize the threat” posed by the Chinese government, suggesting security partnerships with countries in the pacific rim.

Although possessing a coordinated international investment strategy, China has not engaged in aggressive military expansionism outside its internationally recognized borders. Only small skirmishes occur on disputed territory with India. China currently owns one overseas military base in Djibouti, a small number relative to a country like the US which has 800 bases in over 70 countries.

In the South China sea, where MacKay expresses concerns, China has seven military bases on man-made islands with limited military value. One of these islands, built by China in an area called “Mischief Reef,” was ruled by a 2016 international tribunal to be in Philippine waters operating without authorization. The 2016 ruling clarified rights to the South China sea and issued eleven actionable findings for China, of which at least nine have been respected, with the principle exception noted above.

In recent years, tension between China and Vietnam has attracted attention and is alluded to by O’Toole on his website. Conflict between the two countries is largely attributed to territorial disputes that have not resulted in any deaths. The most recent standoff occurred in 2014 over oil exploration.

A principal feature of the QUAD, which was reestablished in 2017 (first ending in 2008), has been increased joint military exercises (land and naval) between member countries. The potential costs for Canada to participate in these military exercises is unclear, although individual US military exercises in East Asia can cost several million. In Eastern Europe, where large-scale military exercises are frequent, Canada’s military spent $134 million in 2019.

Security experts have expressed concerns over increased militarization in the region. The presence of increasingly provocative US warships and “operationally unpredictable” US bombers in the South China Sea is believed, in particular, to be a plausible future catalyst for a “miscalculation and misjudgment” that sparks an “escalation” of force.

In reasoning for an aggressive approach to relations with China both candidates frequently note China’s human rights record, particularly its abuses of its Uyghur population, and state policy in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Tibet.

In speaking with The Post Millennial, Wenran Jiang, an Alberta-based professor with a long history of advising Canadian governments, pointed to Canada's limited influence on China's domestic policy. With a “population of a major Chinese city” says Jiang, “the best we can do is encourage reform-oriented forces in China to grow.” He adds that an aggressive policy with China has only helped hurt trading relationships and endangered Canadians.

Jiang, who personally knows Michael Kovrig, one of the “two Michaels” being detained by China, see’s diplomacy over their imprisonment as emblematic of a growing confrontational approach to China, ignoring “key issues raised by Kovrig and his family.”

O’Toole’s proposed solution to Kovrig and Spavor’s return is to give a 30-day period for their release before imposing sanctions on Chinese officials.

China’s detention of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor followed Canada’s detention of Meng Wanzhou, CFO of Huawei, a major telecoms company. Meng’s arrest was ordered by US authorities over Huawei’s alleged fraud in violating US sanctions in Iran (where it sells computers). The sanctions were ruled illegal by international courts prior to Meng’s arrest and have since exacerbated the health and economic crises in Iran.

After the US demanded Meng’s detention, she traveled to six other countries with US extradition treaties before being arrested in Vancouver. Michael Kovrig’s wife who keeps limited contact with her husband, has publicly denounced an “aggressive” or “confrontational” approach to his release, and has obtained a legal opinion confirming that the Canadian Minister of Justice can legally interfere to stop Meng’s extradition.

Militarizing the Arctic

In the Arctic, O’Toole and MacKay pressure for the expansion of Canada’s military presence, highlighting “Russian territorial aggression” (O’Toole) and its “rapid militarization” (MacKay).

According to Ernie Regehr, Senior Fellow in Arctic Security and Defence at The Simons Foundation, although a middle power globally, Russia is “destined to be the primary military power” in the Arctic. Russia has the longest Arctic coastline, generates a fifth of its GNP there, and has an Arctic population roughly the size of all other Arctic powers combined.

In parliamentary hearings, Major-General William Seymour of the Canadian Joint Operations Command has attributed Russia’s military presence in the Arctic to its need to assist civilian authorities, protect key resource sectors, and to patrol and manage shipping routes.

“The forces and string of military bases being assembled for those purposes do not provide Russia either the means or the interest in territorial expansion/aggression in the Arctic,” Regehr told The Post Millennial. “[Russia] needs a stable, predictable security environment to promote foreign investment to exploit its resources, and to promote use of the Northern Sea Route.”

MacKay nonetheless suggests engaging in a stronger presence at forums like the Arctic Council and NATO to assert Canada’s Arctic claims. Both MacKay and O’Toole look to deploy more Canadian Rangers, a component of the Canadian Army Reserve who live and work in isolated coastal regions.

Regehr notes that NATO’s presence in the Arctic would only promote further military expansion by Russia. At the moment, military endeavors like American anti-submarine patrols aimed at Russian sea-based nuclear deterrents are “seriously destabilizing.”

Better dealing with issues of Arctic security would require a forum that incorporates Russia, equipped for exchange of information on military developments so as to avoid dangerous misconceptions, something the Arctic Council is not suited for.

Regehr believes expanding the Canadian Rangers would make sense because of their contribution to Arctic life, but not to counter Russia’s military.