The Ontario Progressive Conservatives, led by Doug Ford, have "pulled away" from the second and third-place Liberals and NDPs as the province's election is set to kick off, a poll by Ipsos has found.
The survey was conducted for the Global News, and found that if the election were to be held tomorrow, the PCs would win under Ford with 39 percent of the popular vote.
39 percent of the vote would mark a four-point increase since last month, but a two-point decrease of their vote share from 2018.
The Ontario Liberals and New Democrats would split the remainder of the vote, with the Liberals garnering just 26 percent of the vote, and the NDP collecting 25 percent of the vote.
Five percent of voters said they would vote for the Greens, while another 6 percent said they would vote for another party.
Five percent said they would abstain from voting altogether, and 13 percent said they were still undecided.
The poll found that in the 905 area, the PCs, 47 percent, have a 21 percent lead over the Liberals, 26 percent, while the NDP has 20 percent.
In the 416 area, the Liberals lead with 36 percent of the vote, while the PCs have 32 percent.
26 percent in this region said they would vote NDP.
The poll also found significantly different voting patterns between men and women.
33 percent of women said they would vote PC, while 30 said they would vote NDP and 28 said they would vote for the Liberals.
Men, on the other hand, were more comfortable voting PC, with 46 percent saying they would vote for Ford's party.
24 percent of men said they would vote Liberal, while 20 said they would vote NDP.
Ipsos Vice President Sean Simpson said that there's been a "strong incumbency effect for governments across Canada," with the poll noting that 40 percent of people surveyed said that Ford has done a good ob, while 57 percent said they believed it was time for another party to take over.
"We saw that when Justin Trudeau federally was reelected — albeit with another minority government — because those over the age of 55 were largely in support of the pandemic measures and restrictions that the federal government had put in place," he told Global News.
Simpson said that a "very similar" phenomenon is taking place in Ontario, saying that there is a "lot of strong support from older residents of the province for the incumbent government."
"At the start of a campaign we like to determine and understand whether or not it’s a ‘change election’ or not, meaning that just general inertia is going to help the opposition parties," he said.
"It seems as though this Ontario election is not a 'change election,' and therefore, the trends and the tides will generally favour the incumbent government in Premier Doug Ford."
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