On Wednesday, no new coronavirus infections were reported in the Chinese province of Hubei for the first time in over two months when the outbreak began. The figures, which are released daily by the Chinese government, would be good news if taken at face value, as the epidemic has infected close to 81,000 people in China.
This news comes as China is still gathering itself after the disease broke out in Wuhan near the end of January. Hubei’s population of almost 60 million is still under quarantine, according to Bloomberg.
As the virus has spread across the world, and people in China start to resume their social activities and jobs—experts say that a second wave of the infection is still likely, due to its highly contagious nature.
Though the number of cases in Hubei has dropped, China is still seeing imported cases of the virus. There were 34 new cases reported by the National Health Commission on March 18 and they were all patients that picked the disease up in foreign countries.
On a global scale, the virus has now infected more than 225,000 people and killed over 9,000. Italy is among the hardest hit countries by the virus. In other countries, supply chains are being affected as restaurants and schools close down and events are cancelled.
Economists estimate that $2.7 trillion worth of the world's gross domestic product will be lost.
Just over a month ago, Hubei saw over 14,000 new cases in a single day and it has partially lifted the quarantine that began on January 23. Some of the residents from low risk areas have been given permission to leave the province after acquiring a “green code” certification to show that they are healthy.
Some of the recently infected countries are taking similar measures that the province of Hubei implemented when it quarantined Wuhan and the surrounding cities.
According to researchers, the Wuhan lockdown most likely cut down overseas transmission by close to 80 percent, though it made life for Wuhan residents incredibly hard. Thousands of doctors were sent by the country and pop-up hospitals were built in a matter of days.
The economy in China took a hard hit as a result of the outbreak and financing rules have been loosened by the government to allow small businesses to get through the crisis.
Raina MacIntyre, the head of a biosecurity program at Sydney’s University of New South Wales noted that with people resuming work and restrictions being lifted, the chance of another wave of the virus is high. She added that much of the Chinese population still is not immune to the virus because they were not infected the first time around.
“Even if there were over 100 times more cases in China than were reported, less than 1 percent of the entire population were infected, leaving most people in China still susceptible,” MacIntyre said.
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