Illegal immigration to increase House seats from 'sanctuary' states

Experts warn that the increase in illegal immigration could have a significant impact on US elections, specifically representation in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College.

The influx of illegal immigrants could sway the apportionment of House seats, which would impact electoral votes for presidential elections.

President Biden made this potential outcome possible after signing an executive order in 2021 that requires the US Census Bureau to factor in all residents, including noncitizens, as part of the US population.

The Federation for American Immigration Reform estimates that as of June 2023, there are 16.8 million illegal immigrants living in the United States. On average, each House seat represents 761,168 residents, which means that illegal immigrants would account for 22 seats in the House, per Fox News.

The House seats would most likely be picked up in sanctuary states, which are all Democratic-run.

Mark Krikorian, the executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, warned about the possible impact and told Fox News: "Illegal immigration has all kinds of effects and among them is that it distorts the mechanics of democratic government."

"Illegal immigrants aren't even supposed to be here, so their inclusion in the census count for purposes of apportionment really is outrageous," added Krikorian.

"There are a lot of close votes in Congress, more than there used to be. So, it can, in fact, make a difference," he continued. "It shouldn't be a question of: Does this give you personally more influence in Washington? The question should be: Is it right? Is it healthy for our democratic process to be distorted this way? The answer is no."

Furthermore, according to the most recent census results released in 2020, the allotment of House seats for New York was reduced from 27 to 26. The state's previous apportionment could have been maintained with 89 additional residents, as determined by the Census Bureau. This calculation underscores the fragile nature of state House seat levels.

Additionally, states receive electoral votes for president in accordance with the number of representatives they have in Congress. As a result, a state with more House representatives has more sway in presidential elections.

Former President Donald J. Trump attempted to include a citizenship question on the 2020 census questionnaire, however, Trump's efforts were undermined by Congressional Democrats who argued that the move would be unlawful.

In July 2019, the Trump administration gave up on the move following a Supreme Court decision. At the time, Trump claimed that permitting noncitizens to participate in the voting process was "part of a broader left-wing effort to erode the rights of the American citizen."