Maxime Bernier predicts Trudeau will resign before the next federal election

People's Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime Bernier says he strongly believes that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will not lead the Liberal Party into the anticipated October 2025 election but "may resign early next year."

Bernier remains highly critical of Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, whom he says, like Trudeau, is "pandering" to identity politics and too reliant on polls and focus groups.

Unlike President Joe Biden, who is under immense pressure to end his candidacy before the November presidential election, Bernier notes that "Trudeau still has some time. And I believe that we will know [his future] maybe, you know, in February, next year. And if Trudeau resigns, that will be around that time his party will have time to do a leadership contest [and elect] a new leader," Bernier says.

"But I think it won't do anything," he continues, insisting that a change in leadership won't change the public antipathy towards the Liberals "when people are fed up and they want to change."

Bernier says his "goal is to be there also and be part of that change and offer a real change to Canadians."

He also predicts that Poilievre will easily achieve a majority government – perhaps the largest in Canadian history – and that will be a good thing for Canada and for Bernier's own party "because I don't want people telling me in 2029 at the general election, 'Poilievre was not able to do that, because he didn't have a majority.' So we need to give him a majority; he will have a majority. And I believe that lots of people will be disappointed."

The former foreign affairs minister is highly critical of Poilievre for not being more vociferous in his opposition to Trudeau's thought crimes legislation, Bill C-63, the Online Harms Act.

Poilievre's opposition to the bill was muted until he learned it would cost over $200 million for government workers to populate another layer of bureaucracy to manage the online censorship.

"The reason why Poilievre was not so active in speaking against that bill, is because … the Liberals did a very good job promoting that bill, as protecting our kids. And so I'm pretty sure that Poilievre did a focus group," Bernier says.

"So Poilievre didn't want to go against the public opinion and didn't want to speak against that because he thought that he would be seen as anti-kids. And so that's another proof that Poilievre is doing politics based on surveys and polling."

Bernier says the cost of the bill provided the Conservative leader with the impetus to criticize the legislation because he was "pretty sure that Canadians won't like it. 'So I will speak against that bill, because it's too expensive.' So that's what he did."

The PPC leader says the cost of the bill is not as bad as how it will destroy free speech in Canada and that should be the chief reason for stopping it.

"Instead of fighting for what is right, instead of telling Canadians, you know, it's a censorship bill, it's against our freedom of speech, we cannot go ahead with that – he didn't have the courage to tell the truth, because the truth was not that popular," Bernier says.

"So that's the Conservatives. That's why I left the Conservatives. And I said, this body is morally and intellectually corrupt; they are only conservative in name, they don't have the courage to defend and speak about real conservative ideas and values. And by doing that, they're giving credibility to the leftist narrative," he continues.

He insists there is no other option but to oppose Bill C-63 because it "will abolish our freedom of speech in this country. It's an authoritarian bill, we must be against that, that bill is like being in the Soviet Union 50 years ago."

Bernier also contrasts his party's policy on the war in Ukraine with the Conservative Party, which has steadfastly supported providing the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with billions of dollars in military, administrative and humanitarian aid.

"We don't have to be a part of that by giving more than $10 billion to the corrupt Ukraine government. We are doing that because Poilievere and Trudeau are pandering to the Ukrainian community and they are very influential in some ridings out west. And they want to be sure to win these ridings," he says.

"So our foreign policy is not in the best interest of our country and the security of Canadians. And so that's why it's sad to say, but we are the only national political party that is fighting for peace and prosperity, and saying we don't have anything to do in Ukraine … and I don't want to be part of these proxy wars between the US and Russia."

Bernier says he doesn't regret leaving the Conservative Party even as it is poised to regain power. He says it is more important to lead on the issues, which he says he did on opposing mass immigration. He hopes to attract potentially 10 percent of the popular vote in the next election and says regardless, "We will be ready."

The Hon. Maxime Bernier was the minister of foreign affairs and industry in the government of Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper. He ran unsuccessfully against Saskatchewan Conservative MP Andrew Scheer for the leadership of the Conservative Party in 2017. He founded the People's Party of Canada in 2018.