Dr. Theresa Tam provided Canadians with the latest COVID-19 modelling and figures on Tuesday as provinces begin to eye reopening strategies.
The latest statistics show 49,025 confirmed cases in the country, including 2,766 deaths, out of 740,000 tests. Seven percent of Canadians tested have tested positive.
"Models are planning tools," said Tam, saying that these figures will help provide a forecast for the country.
Tam said that the primary objective was to get transmission rates to less than one person for each new infection. Previous projections showed that each new infection was spreading the virus to two others.
Tam said that the proportion of cases who have died from the virus has increased from 2.2 percent to 5.5 percent, as of April 27, compared to April 9.
Tam said 17 percent of cases have required hospitalization, while less than 5 percent have required intensive care.
The modelling forecast shows that as of yesterday, the median age for infection is 52, with gender splits showing that 55 percent of cases are female, and 45 percent are male.
Tam says that epidemic growth has slowed, and the levelling-off of epidemic trajectory in most jurisdictions in Canada.
"Outbreaks in high risk populations are the driving force behind the regional epidemics," said Tam, noting specifically outbreaks in senior and long term care homes.
Outbreaks in these homes account for the majority of all deaths in Canada. Shelters, correctional facilities, and food and agricultural settings are also other hotbeds for the virus.
Tam said that the doubling rate of cases has dropped dramatically, from every 3-5 days to every 16 days.
"It is important to recognize that models are not crystal balls," said Tam, saying that models are insights as to what could happen under various hypothetical scenarios, to help public health actions to come to the best possible outcome.
Tam said the predicted number of COVID cases in the rage of 53,000 to 67,000 cases by May 5. Canada currently has 49,000 cases.
The predicted number of deaths is predicted to be 3,300 to 3,900 by May 5. Canada currently has over 2,700 deaths.
Tam said that until the population has a high level of immunity to the virus, or a vaccine is in place, we will have to live with a "manageable level" of COVID activity, saying that some public health measures will need to stay in place for the foreseeable future to prevent epidemic waves.
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