Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez defeats John Braun in Washington swing district

The Associated Press and Decision Desk HQ called the race for Gluesenkamp Perez on Wednesday. DDHQ issued its projection at 5:16 pm local time with Perez receiving 157,272 votes to Braun’s 130,192, giving her a roughly 9.4-point advantage with an estimated 83 percent counted.

The outcome delivers another setback to Republicans seeking to reclaim a Southwest Washington district President Donald Trump carried in all three of his presidential campaigns. Perez first flipped the seat in 2022 by defeating Republican Joe Kent, then defeated Kent again in 2024.

During the campaign, polling and discontent among Democratic voters fueled Republican hopes that Perez could be unseated. The race had previously been moved from “Tilt Democratic” to “Toss Up,” citing her problems with Democratic base voters and the district’s Republican lean.

That report also highlighted a Republican-commissioned co-efficient survey that found Braun leading Perez 41 percent to 34 percent. Half of respondents viewed Perez unfavorably, and she received support from just 69 percent of Democrats. Initial primary returns showed Perez and Braun separated by only 263 votes.

Republicans rallied behind Braun, a longtime state legislator, businessman, and retired Navy captain who received Trump’s endorsement and repeated support from House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Johnson made three trips to western Washington to support Braun, including an October 21 rally at Braun’s company in Chehalis, which drew an estimated 550 people.

During his August visit, Johnson underscored the national stakes.

“This district is going to help decide the fate of the Republic,” Johnson said. “The current occupant of this seat does not belong in that seat,” he added.

Braun had announced his congressional campaign on The Ari Hoffman Show in August 2025, emphasizing federal overspending, his military service and his experience operating a manufacturing business. He challenged Perez’s moderate image, accusing her of relying on bipartisan votes that carried little political cost while avoiding larger issues.

A later DHM Research survey commissioned by OPB also suggested a close contest, finding Braun at 48 percent and Perez at 47 percent after undecided likely voters were asked which candidate they leaned toward. The difference fell within the survey’s approximately 4.2-point margin of error.

Perez also faced public opposition from her former Democratic primary challenger, progressive Brent Hennrich.

“Absolutely no way, shape or form will I support her,” Hennrich said after the primary. He planned to write in another candidate and said he would be comfortable with Braun winning, although he declined to instruct his supporters to follow his example.

Wednesday’s count nevertheless showed Perez building a commanding advantage in Clark County, the district’s largest source of votes. She led there by approximately 21.7 percentage points, outweighing Braun’s leads in Lewis, Cowlitz, Wahkiakum and the district’s portion of Thurston County.