‘Gold standard’ pollster Ann Selzer to retire after predicting Kamala win

In the final days leading up to the 2024 election, the Des Moines Register released a surprising Iowa Poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Trump with 47 percent to his 44 percent in the state. This prediction led many to believe that Iowa, which Trump had carried in the previous two presidential elections, could potentially flip for Harris. However, Trump ultimately won Iowa by a decisive 13-point margin, capturing 56 percent of the vote compared to Harris’s 43 percent.

Following the electoral results, Selzer acknowledged the poll’s inaccuracy, calling it a "big miss." She speculated that the poll’s findings may have “actually energize[d] and activate[d] Republican voters who thought they would likely coast to victory.”

Selzer began her association with the Iowa Poll as a staffer for the Des Moines Register in 1987 before founding her own firm, Selzer & Co., in West Des Moines in 1997, which continued conducting the poll. Over the years, the Iowa Poll has been widely respected as a reliable indicator of political sentiment in the state, according to CNN. Prior to 2024, it had only incorrectly predicted the winner once—in 2004, when it forecasted a win for John Kerry, though George W. Bush ultimately won Iowa by a narrow margin.

In a column for the Des Moines Register, Selzer explained that her decision to step away from the Iowa Poll was made a year ago and was not solely related to the polling error in 2024. “Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” she wrote.

Selzer expressed that she wished her final poll had aligned more closely with the actual election outcome and found it “ironic” that the opposite occured.

“Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings,” Selzer said.

Des Moines Register Executive Editor Carol Hunter addressed the poll’s inaccuracy in a separate column, stating that the outlet plans to “find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”

“Our intention is to reimagine how to best capture public sentiment and opinion among Iowans to provide valuable and accurate insight into legislative issues and politics,” Hunter wrote.