Key, contentious races to watch this Election Day that could have major impact on House, Senate

Key Senate Races

Montana: Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is said to be one of the highest at risk of losing his seat to Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. Tester has been trailing behind Sheehy for weeks in the polls and is behind the GOP challenger by an average of 6.5 points, per Real Clear Polling. Tester has long been seen as a "blue dog" Democrat in the state, and has tried to buck against the Biden-Harris administration at times on topics such as immigration. He backed the Laken Riley Act, the law passed in response to an illegal immigrant and suspected Tren de Argua gang member being arrested and charged for the murder of Riley, who was a nursing student in Georgia.

Ohio: The race between Democratic incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown and GOP challenger Bernie Moreno is considered to be a dead heat, per Real Clear Polling. Each poll in the last few weeks has been within the margin of error. Both parties have spent millions on the critical race as Brown is looking to defend his position, being in the Senate for the last 18 years. Moreno has tied Brown to the Biden-Harris administration's border policies over the course of the campaign, making a connection to the immigrant crisis stories that have come out of Springfield, Ohio and other locations in the state.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) is also in a tight race with GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde. Baldwin has been in office since 2012 and is trying for her third term. However, she has been hushed about support for Harris in the weeks leading up to the election. Baldwin as well as Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) have moved away from Kamala Harris as Trump has gained momentum in the polls in October. Hovde is a businessman and has presented himself as an outsider looking to change things in DC. When he was asked by conservative commentator Ben Shapiro why he wanted to run for the Senate in October, he responded, "I know it’s going to sound corny, but I’m old fashioned, I love my country. I was raised very patriotically. We cannot lose this country. If we lose this country [the] world is destined to a very long dark period."

Pennsylvania: Incumbent Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) is also feeling the heat in his race with GOP candidate David McCormick. Pennsylvania is considered to be one of the most important states of the election, with both Harris and Trump spending millions in get-out-to-vote efforts as well as advertising in the Keystone State. Despite the potential support that the presidential race could give to an incumbent senator such as Casey, he has even tried to attach himself to Trump's tariff policies in recent weeks that could boost Pennsylvania's manufacturing industry. Casey has reportedly avoided political affiliation, running on his record alone in advertisements. The RealClearPolling average with Casey and McCormick places Casey ahead by 2.4 points, but of the last three polls, one went to Casey, one went to McCormick, and one was a tie.

Arizona: Independent Kyrsten Sinema announced her retirement prior to the 2024 election as she was facing vulnerabilities after leaving the Democratic Party. The race has been left open for Republican candidate Kari Lake, who ran for governor of the state in 2022, against Democratic candidate Ruben Gallego. As of Monday, Gallego leads by 3.9 points in the Real Clear Polling averages. However, recent controversy after it was revealed that Gallego served divorce papers to his wife when she was pregnant may draw down some of his support in the state.

Nevada: Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) is an incumbent Democratic senator and has been holding the seat since her election in 2018 when she bested former Republican Sen. Dean Hellen and appeared to be poised to win the seat early in the race, per NPR. However, Republican candidate Sam Brown, who is a Purple Heart recipient, and a small businessman launched his campaign against her. Rosen currently leads in the RealClearPolling average by about 4 points. Two out of the four recent polls have Brown up by one or tying Rosen, but Rosen is ahead by nine and six in the other two. He has presented himself as an underdog both in the race and in his life story after he survived a roadside bombing where his face was severely burned. With signs of polling tipping towards Trump in the Silver State, the GOP presidential nominee's down-ballot impact may also help Brown edge out a win over Rosen.

Key House Races

Some swing districts are likely going to signal the amount of support either the GOP or the Democrats will have in taking control of the House. Here are the races to watch to see who will take the House of Representatives.

New York: In the Empire State, there are half a dozen swing districts up for grabs and Republicans will have to defend five of them going into Election Day. GOP numbers in early voting, however, are looking very good for the incumbents, per information shared with The Post Millennial by the New York Republican Party. Districts 1 with GOP Rep. Nick LaLota versus Democrat challenger John Avlon, 4 with GOP Rep. Anthony D’Esposito vs Democratic challenger Laura Gillen, 17 with GOP Rep. Mike Lawler versus Democrat challenger Sean Patrick Maloney, 19 with GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro versus Democrat challenger Josh Molino, and 22 with GOP Rep. Brandon Williams versus Democrat challenger John Mannion are all districts held by Republicans that helped bring home the congressional win of 2022. The lone Democrat incumbent in these districts is in 18, where Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan is facing GOP challenger Alison Esposito.

California, another deep blue state - but has a considerable number of swing districts - could also determine the outcome in the House. Districts 13 with GOP Rep. John Duarte versus Democrat challenger Adam Gray, 22 with GOP candidate David Valadao versus Democrat candidate Rudy Salas, 27 with GOP Rep. Mike Garcia versus Democrat challenger George Whitesides, and 45 with GOP candidate Michelle Steel versus Democrat candidate Derek Tran are all races that, along with the close ones in New York, could swing the House one way or the other.

Virginia's 7th district will be an early indicator to watch on election night as polls close first on the East Coast and gradually produce results across the United States as the night goes on. Virginia's District 7 has been left as an open seat by Democrat Abigail Spanberger. Instead, it will be a newcomers contest between Democrat Eugene Vindman and Republican Derrick Anderson.

Nebraska's second district, which is a Biden crossover seat, is currently held by GOP Rep. Don Bacon, who is being challenged by Democrat Tony Vargas. A crossover district is what happens when voters split a ticket between the president and House members in Congress. Bacon was able to flip the Omaha district in 2016 and has consistently won, despite the district being won by President Joe Biden in 2020. It has been a target of Democrats for a while and Vargas is looking to turn the seat back to blue. In the 2022 midterms, Bacon was able to defeat Vargas.

The House and Senate races are key to which party will be able to craft legislation in Congress as well passing through nominations in different government agencies. The Cook Political Report has said that around 27 toss-up seats and 42 leaners will determine the outcome of the House. The Senate will mainly be determined by how many incumbent Democrat senators will be able to defend their positions.