Key races to watch in Tuesday's midterm elections

Republicans are defending their slight majority in the House and Senate as President Donald Trump still has two more years in office. The results tonight will determine how much of Trump's agenda will be able to get accomplished in that timeframe.

The president, for his part, has predicted the GOP will keep control over both chambers of Congress. "We're going to win and let's make the next two years bigger and better and stronger than ever before," Trump told rallygoers in Kansas on Sunday evening.

Kalshi's prediction markets place the likelihood of a Democrat-controlled House at 94 percent and a Democrat-controlled Senate at 76 percent, as of Tuesday morning. They were 78 percent accurate on outcomes in the 2024 race.

The GOP will be fighting a historical record where the party in power usually ends up losing control of Congress in off-election years, but the GOP has fought against that with congressional redistricting efforts in states like Texas, Florida, and others.

Democrats responded in kind, investing in efforts to redraw congressional lines in states like California, Virginia, and others.

Those efforts will be put to the test at the ballot box tonight. Although many of seats in the House and Senate are already a foregone conclusion, there are some that can be tracked tonight as bellwethers for the nation.

Senate

Texas: In Texas, the US Senate race between Democrat candidate James Talarico and Ken Paxton has become the most expensive non-presidential election on record ever, with a combined $573.2 million being spent on advertising from Paxton or Talarico between the primaries and now, per KSAT. Polls in Texas open from 7 am to 7 pm local time except for in the El Paso area, which is open from 8 am to 8 pm. Polling averages in the state have been in the margin of error ballpark. If Talarico wins in Texas, it will likely be a bad night for the GOP.

Michigan: In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is facing off against Republican Mike Rogers to fill the seat of Democrat Senator Gary Peters. According to RealClear Polling, El-Sayed is up an average of 5.3 points going into Tuesday. However, most of the polls were taken before El-Sayed's primary challenger Haley Stevens endorsed Rogers on Monday. Stevens was able to clinch just under half of the Democrat primary votes and her endorsement of Rogers may have an impact on the race's outcome. Polls in Michigan open at 7 am and close at 8 pm local time.

Iowa: In Iowa, Democrat candidate Josh Turek is facing off against GOP nominee Ashely Hinton. The RealClear Polling average shows a tie in the race. This is the first time that a Senate election has taken place at the same time as a gubernatorial race in the state since 1968. Democrats have not won a Senate race in Iowa since 2008. Polls open at 7 am and close at 8 pm local time.

Kansas: Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall is facing a challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Democrat who is the pastor of a church that has defended drag story hour for children. Polling averages from RealClear Polling show Adam Hamilton up by a little over 4 points. Kansas, however, is a GOP-controlled state and was won by Trump in 2024 by 18 points.

Alaska: The race in Alaska is a little different because there are two Dan Sullivans on the ballot, one who is the incumbent GOP Senator, and another—Dan J. Sullivan—that has claimed he is a real candidate. The real match-up is between the incumbent Dan Sullivan and Democrat nominee Mary Peltola. The second Dan Sullivan, who has been dubbed "Decoy Dan" by the GOP, has links to the Democrat Party, including his son working as a field representative for Democrat Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp of Washington State. Revelations from the New York Times have led to an increase law enforcement scrutiny into "Decoy Dan," after the paper said that Peltola's staffers were involved in the recruiting of the second Sullivan. Peltola will be the only Democrat in the race, but the two Sullivans appearing on the ballot, one as Republican and the other as "undeclared" is already starting to cause confusion. Alaska polls open at 7 am and close at 8 pm local time and uses ranked choice voting.

Maine: Incumbent GOP Senator Susan Collins in Maine faces Democrat candidate Troy Jackson. Collins has a record of performing well and has been in the Senate since 1997. Jackson, who fathered children with his cousin, replaced former Democrat candidate Graham Platner after he quit the race over sexual assault allegations. The RealClear Polling average has Jackson up by 3.6 points, in the ballpark of margin of error. Polls in Maine open starting at 6 am depending on location and close at 8 pm.

Ohio: Republican Sen. Jon Husted, the incumbent is facing Democrat Sherrod Brown, who held Ohio’s other Senate seat for three terms until losing to Republican Bernie Moreno. The winner will finish Vance's Senate term and has to run again in 2028. Polling averages show Brown up by 2.8 points, within typical margin of error.

House:

Some early election House races to watch that will be bellwethers tonight will include the following:

Virginia 2: between GOP Representative Jen Kiggans in a rematch against Elaine Luria, the former Democratic representative in the district.

Florida 14: between Democrat Kathy Castor and Republican Mike Beltran. The race will test the redistricting efforts pushed by the Trump administration. Castor has held the seat for multiple terms, but the new congressional map was carried by Trump by roughly 11 points in 2024, per Florida Politics.

Florida 22: between Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar. The Cook Political Report has rated the district a "toss up" but it was carried by Trump by 11 points in 2024. The result may indicate how well the GOP will do overall.

New York 17: between incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Lawler and Democrat challenger Conley. Lawler is one of the House Republicans in a district that was won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

Pennsylvania 1: between incumbent Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick and Democrat Bob Harvie. Fitzpatrick is a five-term incumbent and is running for re-election in the district that Kamala Harris won. The district includes Bucks and Mongomery County, a region that has been known to predict election outcomes.

There are also Democratic Socialist of America candidates on the ballot in New York, Colorado, and other states.